Daily Archives: September 10, 2010

Vikings/Saints thoughts

A few thoughts on last night’s season opener/NFC championship game rematch between the Saints and Vikings, both from an on-field perspective and from a fantasy football perspective. The Saints won a low-scoring battle 14-9.

On-field thoughts
*Drew Brees didn’t pile up huge yardage numbers, but he is just as effective as ever. His ability to spread the ball around (he completed multiple passes to eight different receivers) makes teh Saints really hard to stop.
*At the same time, the Saints’ ability to run the ball to close out the game was impressive as well. RB Pierre Thomas had just three carries for a single yard in the first half, yet he finished with 71 yards on 19 carries. In the absence of Mike Bell, Thomas will need to get the tough yards yet again.
*Meanwhile, QB Brett Favre struggled in the second half, going just 4-of-11 for 45 yards. That’s a troubling sign, because the passing game was so good last year and was a key in helping the Vikings succeed. Maybe Favre doesn’t trust his receives in the absence of Sidney Rice, or maybe Favre doesn’t trust his offensive line. Or maybe Favre just isn’t in his groove yet. But that’s a problem that the Vikings must resolve if they are going to make a run at the Super Bowl again.
*Favre also threw an interception, which isn’t a good sign going forward. He threw just seven last year, but picks have been Favre’s bugaboo throughout his career.
*We didn’t spend a ton of time in our season preview on it, but the Vikings’ secondary could really be a problem this year. At corner, the Vikes had to play without CBs Cedric Griffin and rookie Chris Cook (who suffered a torn meniscus in late August). Griffin is still working his way back from a torn ACL he suffered late in the NFC championship game last year. Cook has much better size than fill-in Asher Allen, which is probably the reason the Vikings want him to move into the starting lineup ASAP. The Saints looked to pick on Allen, especially early.
*You have to admire Vikings MLB E.J. Henderson’s recovery from an especially nasty broken leg last year, but the Saints immediately looked to exploit Henderson in coverage. If Henderson has lost range, the Vikings will have to play more nickel than expected, which will be a problem given their lack of secondary depth.
*The season-opening game has been a low-scoring affair for three straight years now. That’s a trend to remember for last year.

Fantasy Football thoughts
*It appears that Saints WR Lance Moore is going to be a factor this season. Moore played in just seven games and had just 14 catches last year, but he was targeted twice early by the Saints, and he looks like the Saints’ top slot option. In a receiving corps as crowded as New Orleans’, having a clear role should help Moore become fantasy relevant. He probably wasn’t drafted in many leagues, but he’s worth a look. Remember, Moore had 79 catches back in 2008. That also lessens the value of other Saints receivers, at least a little bit.
*With Sidney Rice out, Vikings TE Visanthe Shiancoe was targeted more often as a possession receiver. That role could help him surpass his career-high 56 catches of a year ago. That helps Shiancoe’s fantasy stock, because his value as a starting fantasy tight end the last two years has been very touchdown-dependent. The fact that Shiancoe led the Vikes with four catches and 76 yards may be a harbinger of what’s to come. He also had a touchdown in this game, which continues his trend of the last three years.
*Right now, Shiancoe and RB Adrian Peterson (87 rushing yards, 14 receiving yards) are the only Vikings that are quality fantasy starters on a weekly basis.
*Thomas’ lack of use in the first half worried fantasy owners, but he finished with 86 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown. That’s likely going to be a pretty routine number for Thomas this year.

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Football Relativity: 2010 predictions

Indianapolis Colts

Image by The Brit_2 via Flickr

A few days ago, we launched our 2010 Football Relativity Season Preview. Now we’re going to use what we learned to make our 2010 predictions. We aren’t just listing teams in order of our comparison; rather, we’re also considering strength of divisions, schedules, and other factors. And yes, the picture is a clue.

Division Winners
AFC East – Miami Dolphins
AFC North – Baltimore Ravens
AFC South – Indianapolis Colts
AFC West – San Diego Chargers

NFC East – New York Giants
NFC North – Green Bay Packers
NFC South – New Orleans Saints
NFC West – San Francisco 49ers

Wild Cards
AFC – New England Patriots, Tennessee Titans
NFC – Atlanta Falcons, Dallas Cowboys

Championship Games
AFC – Colts over Dolphins
NFC – Cowboys over Packers

Super Bowl 45
Colts over Cowboys

League MVP
QB Aaron Rodgers, Packers

Defensive MVP
OLB DeMarcus Ware, Cowboys

Rookie of the Year
RB Jahvid Best, Lions

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