As we prepared our Fantasy Football draft board, we cross-checked our list against others around the web, and we noticed that we had a contrarian view of how fantasy numbers of NFL teammates at running back will compare. So in this post, we’re going to break down several of these teammate situations to explain our thinking – and hopefully give you a leg up in your draft process.
(By the way, our Draft Board broke all sorts of traffic records for the blog. Thanks to everyone who checked it out, and welcome back. Hopefully you’ll find more useful fantasy insights and NFL analysis throughout the 2010 season.)
Giants – Ahmad Bradshaw vs. Brandon Jacobs – Most fantasy analysts are pointing to Jacobs as the best fantasy option in New York, hearkening back to Jacobs’ solid 2008 fantasy season. But the reality is that Bradshaw was the best back in blue last year, averaging a yard per carry more than Jacobs. And even though he’s smaller than the bullish Jacobs, Bradshaw outscored Jacobs 7 touchdowns to 6. Jacobs appears to be wearing down, while Bradshaw seems to be emerging as a running threat. Our sense is that Bradshaw will take over the starting job this year and be on the good side of a 60-40 carries split, which will mean Jacobs’ fantasy stake will depend totally on touchdowns. We’d take Bradshaw as a top-25 running back, but Jacobs is a low-upside No. 4 back on our board. Bradshaw’s the better bet, and it’s not close.
Dolphins – Ricky Williams vs. Ronnie Brown – Most evaluators include both Williams and Brown among the top 25 at running back, but most of them favor Brown over Williams. We don’t, and here’s why. Williams had better yards-per-carry and yards-per-catch averages than Brown, and his fantasy numbers were less dependent on scoring than Brown’s were. Williams is also a better receiver than Brown. We expect Williams to end up with about 1,200 yards from scrimmage, while Brown will end up with about 1,000. Unless Brown outscores Williams by a bunch, Williams will be the more valuable fantasy back.
Cowboys – Marion Barber vs. Felix Jones – Barber outgained Jones 932-685 last year, even though Jones averaged 1.3 yards per carry more last season. Barber also had 14 more catches than Jones. A little bit of those accumulated differences is due to the fact that Jones missed two games, but he’s missed games in both of his pro seasons. Barber (who missed one game himself) has proven to be a consistent producer of both yardage and touchdowns over his career, and he’s a much surer bet than Jones. Jones will have bigger games than Barber, but Barber’s season-long production makes him a more valuable fantasy option.
Browns – Jerome Harrison vs. Montario Hardesty – Fantasy pundits are all over Harrison after he piled up 561 yards and five touchdowns in the final three weeks of the season last year. But we’d encourage you to slow your roll on Harrison. He was averaging just 3.4 yards per carry on the season before those games (against the Raiders, Chiefs, and Jaguars, not one a top-level defense) and hadn’t scored a touchdown on 88 carries. We’d rather bet on rookie Montario Hardesty, who had a good career at Tennessee, than on Harrison coming anywhere close to replicating his out-of-character end-of-season stats. So we have Hardesty as a No. 3 fantasy back and Harrison as a No. 4.