Daily Archives: October 22, 2009

Pick ’em – Week 7

Another week, another disappointment in the pick ’em. We’ll try again…

NCAA
North Carolina -3 vs. Florida State
South Florida +7 at Pittsburgh
Arkansas +6 at Ole Miss
Michigan +4.5 vs. Penn State
Washington +10 vs. Oregon
Alabama -15 vs. Tennessee
Kansas +7 vs. Oklahoma
Miami -5.5 vs. Clemson
LSU -7.5 vs. Auburn
TCU -2 at BYU
Texas -13 at Missouri

NFL
Pittsburgh -4 vs. Minnesota
San Francisco +3 at Houston
Atlanta +4 at Dallas
Cincinnati -1.5 vs. Chicago
Miami +7 vs. New Orleans
N.Y. Giants -7 vs. Arizona

Last week – 3-5 college, 1-4 pro
Season 29-41-1 college, 19-24 pro, 48-65-1 overall

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Applaud or a Fraud – Emerging Tight Ends

Yesterday, we went back through our preseason top-10 tight end rankings to determine whether fantasy owners should applaud these backs or consider them frauds going forward. You can read that post here.

In this post, we’re going to look at tight ends outside of the preseason top-10 and determine whether we should applaud these tight ends or consider their numbers fraudulent. Read the individual reports to see whether the verdicts mean you should start a player, hold him on your bench, pick him up, or drop him. We’ve listed these players alphabetically.

Brent Celek, Eagles – Celek was a hot sleeper prospect before the season given the expansion of his role in Philadelphia, and he has delivered. He’s averaging 6 catches and 76 yards per game, and he has two touchdowns on the season. Celek has become a starting-caliber fantasy tight end, as many projected. You can feel good about Celek as a starter moving forward. Verdict: Applaud

Vernon Davis, 49ers – Once a top-10 overall draft pick, Davis has spent most of his career as a disappointing performer. But he has started to get it under new Niners coach Mike Singletary, and fantasy owners are reaping the benefits. Davis is averaging 52 yards per game and has three touchdowns in his first five games, which are both solid numbers for a starting fantasy tight end. He’s not a top-6 performer, but he’s plenty good as a fantasy starter now and going forward over the rest of the year. Verdict: Applaud

Jermichael Finley, Packers – If Celek was the sleeper du jour before the season, Finley was the supersleeper du jour. And Finley has gotten on the radar of fantasy tight ends. He has 49 yards per game and one touchdown, although he has one game without a catch and another with just one catch. But while Finley is an interesting prospect, he’s still not a top-15 tight end. He’s a guy whose fantasy upside will truly be realized in 2010, not this year, and that means you shouldn’t be counting on Finley to start for your team. Verdict: A fraud

Todd Heap, Ravens – After an injury-plagued ’07 season and a forgettable ’08 campaign, Heap is having a bit of a fantasy renaissance. He’s averaging 43 yards per game and has two touchdowns, which projects to be much like his last really good fantasy season in 2006. With the Ravens’ offense blossoming under young QB Joe Flacco, Heap becomes at least a matchup play for fantasy owners. He’s not in the top 10 of fantasy tight ends, but he’s close enough to that level that we can clap for him. Verdict: Applaud

Marcedes Lewis, Jaguars – Lewis flies under the fantasy radar, but he’s delivered halfway decent numbers thus far. He’s averaging 34 yards per game and has two touchdowns thus far. Those numbers make him a nice fill-in option, but he’s not a guy you can consider as an every-week starter. Verdict: A fraud

Heath Miller, Steelers – For the first three years of his career, Miller was a top-flight fantasy tight end, but last year his TD total decreased to 3, causing many to forget Miller. But Miller is once again a huge part of the Pittsburgh offense, and he’s averaging 32 yards per game and has four total touchdowns this season. That’s a big fantasy season and plenty of reason to start him in your fantasy league. I’d even start him over Jason Witten at this point. Heath is back as a top-6 tight end. Verdict: Applaud

Zach Miller, Raiders – Miller is a talent whom fantasy owners were salivating over this season, but he didn’t put up big numbers until this week’s 6-catch, 139-yard, one-touchdown game against the Eagles. Miller is hamstrung by his quarterback, JaMarcus Russell, who is so bad that he depresses everyone else’s fantasy value in Oakland. So despite Miller’s big game, we can’t applaud him as a fantasy starter going forward. Just remember: Zach, it’s not your fault. Verdict: A fraud

Tony Scheffler, Broncos – It’s already been a tale of two seasons for Scheffler. In the first three games, he had just one catch per game. But he’s had at least three catches in each of the last three games, and now for the season he’s averaging 36 yards per game with two total touchdowns. He’s an intriguing upside guy right now, but he hovers around 15 on the overall list of fantasy tight ends instead of around the top 10. Verdict: A fraud

Visanthe Shiancoe, Vikings – We thought Shiancoe’s seven-TD season last year was a bit of a fluke, and so we had him outside the top-12 at tight end entering the year. But it wasn’t a fluke. The guy who had just four career TDs entering ’08 now has 12 over the last 22 games, including two last week and five this season. Shiancoe is perhaps the Vikings’ best red zone target, and with Brett Favre running a West Coast scheme the tight end will continue to be part of the offense. Shiancoe doesn’t have wonderful yardage numbers (just 27 yards per game), but he’s scoring so much that you have to start him in fantasy leagues. Verdict: Applaud

Jeremy Shockey, Saints – Shockey is averaging 40 yards per game, which isn’t a ton, but he does have three touchdowns through the season’s first five games. Shockey has established more of a role in New Orleans’ pass-happy offense than he had last year, and that makes him ownable in most leagues. But he’s not a better start than guys like Heath Miller or Owen Daniels or even Chris Cooley or Kellen Winslow. He’s better than expected, but he’s only a matchup play in 12-team leagues. So we’ll give him thumbs down as a starter going forward. Verdict: A fraud

Benjamin Watson, Patriots – Watson has three touchdowns early in the season, but two came in the first game of the season. Plus, he’s averaging just 31 receiving yards a game. He’s worth noting here, but he’s not worth starting unless you’re in a fantasy league with more than 15 teams. Verdict: A fraud

 

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