Applaud or a Fraud – Top 35 Wide Receivers

Over the next several weeks, we’re going to take our preseason draft board and break down the top players at each position in an effort to determine which players are living up to their draft status, which are surpassing their draft status, and which are falling below their draft status. We’ll use our Applaud or a Fraud titles to compare these players vs. preseason expectations, but you’ll want to read each player’s report to see what the verdict means for him.

We’ve already done this with the top 35 running backs and emerging running backs, both of which we covered last week. Now we turn to the top 35 receivers from our preseason draft board.

As a companion to this piece, we’ll look at the top wide receivers who weren’t in our top 35 before the season and try to determine whether we should applaud them or consider them frauds for the rest of the season. Watch for that post tomorrow.

1. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals – It’s four games, four touchdowns for Fitzgerald, who had a two-score game in Week 5 to cement his status as a fantasy stud again this year. While Fitz hasn’t been the dominant force he was in the playoffs last year, he’s doing just fine as a No. 1 fantasy receiver. Expecting much more than this is just being greedy. Verdict: Applaud

2. Andre Johnson, Texans – Like Fitzgerald, Johnson had two TDs in Week 5, but his numbers actually look a bit better than Fitzgerald. Johnson is averaging 87 yards per game and has had two two-TD games. He’s also averaging a whopping 15.6 yards per catch. Aside from an average Week 1 performance, Johnson has been the fantasy bellweather that owners expected when they drafted him. Verdict: Applaud

3. Calvin Johnson, Lions – Johnson got off to a bit of slow start as rookie QB Matthew Stafford gained steam, and then a Week Five injury held him to just one two-yard catch against the Steelers. So Johnson’s numbers are not quite what fantasy owners expected, but he still has 325 receiving yards plus a bonus 37 yards rushing. Given his Week 5 injury, those numbers will do for a No. 1 fantasy wideout – just barely. We’ll clap, although if his current injury lingers we might have to reluctantly change our verdict. Verdict: Applaud

4. Randy Moss, Patriots – Moss is averaging 73 yards a game, which is OK for a top receiver, but he has just one touchdown so far this season. The Tom Brady/Moss combo certainly isn’t what it was two years ago, which may be leaving some fantasy owners struggling. This is another marginal call for a top receiver, but we’ll clap based on Moss’ solid yardage total. Verdict: Applaud

5. Steve Smith, Panthers – Smith suffered through Jake Delhomme’s Week One meltdown, and the Panthers’ offensive woes have held him to 259 yards from scrimmage in four games. Even worse, his first and only score of the season was a two-point conversion in Week 5 against the Redskins. It’s certainly not his fault, but you just can’t praise what Smith has provided fantasy owners thus far. Even worse, you can’t project that much more going forward. Smith is not a No. 1 fantasy wideout this year. Verdict: A fraud

6. Greg Jennings, Packers – Jennings has had a weird year. He had 106 yards in Week One, and then didn’t catch a pass in Week 2. He had 103 yards on just two catches in Week 3, and then had just 31 yards in Week Four. The overall yards-per-game total is OK for Jennings – 60 yards per game – but his wild inconsistency and lack of scoring (one TD plus a two-pointer) leaves him just short of applause. This year, he looks more like a good No. 2 fantasy receiver with upside than a true No. 1 fantasy wideout. Verdict: A fraud

7. Reggie Wayne, Colts – Wayne has been the most consistent fantasy wideout thus far this year, and his totals of 95 yards per game and four total touchdowns are nearly the best in the league. In only one game has Wayne had less than 60 receiving yards, which means you can rely on him for big numbers week after week. Clap it up for the No. 1 overall fantasy receiver thus far and going forward. Verdict: Applaud

8. Anquan Boldin, Cardinals – After a sorry Week One, in which he had just 19 yards receiving, Boldin has had at least 69 receiving yards in the last three games. He has just one touchdown, but his total of 252 yards is fine four games into the season. He’ll need to get in the end zone more often to draw season-long applause, but we’re clapping for now. Verdict: Applaud

9. Roddy White, Falcons – After a so-so start to the season, White had a huge Week 5 against the Seahawks with 210 yards and two touchdowns. Now his season totals of 329 yards and three TDs put him among the top fantasy receivers in the game. That’s his rightful place – as a solid No. 1 fantasy wideout. Verdict: Applaud

10. Terrell Owens, Bills – I kept moving Owens down my rankings in the preseason, to the point where I had him as a borderline No. 1 receiver, but I couldn’t imagine him bottoming out the way he has thus far. He was completely shut out in Week 3 and has just 12 catches in five games, and he’s averaging just 40 yards per game with a single touchdown in Week 2. Owens is barely startable in leagues that have three WR spots in the lineup. You can’t clap for that. Verdict: A fraud

11. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Seahawks – Houshmandzadeh is another wideout who started slow, but he has a 100-yard game and then a two-TD game in his last two outings. He’s averaging 65 yards per game, even though starting QB Matt Hasselbeck missed two games and much of a third. Plus, the arrow is pointing up at this point. Houshmandzadeh looks like he’s going to be a solid No. 2 fantasy wideout going forward. Given this draft position, that kind of production works just fine. Verdict: Applaud

12. Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs – Bowe will give you heartburn because he seems to catch his TD passes late in games when it appears like he’ll be a fantasy bust. But the bottom line is that he has scored touchdowns in three of the four games he played, and in each of those games he had at least four catches. He missed Week 3 due to injury and had just one catch the following week when he still wasn’t 100 percent healthy, but when he’s been right he’s been an acceptable fantasy starter because of his touchdowns. So while it’s a little nerve-wracking to do so, we’ll clap for him as a No. 2 fantasy wideout. Verdict: Applaud

13. Marques Colston, Saints – Colston is the de facto No. 1 receiver in New Orleans’ high-powered offense, but the Saints have so many threats that it’s hard to get consistent production out of any single player. Colston comes closest, with 228 yards and three touchdowns in four games thus far. But he’s also been held under 35 receiving yards in two of those four games. That keeps Colston from being a No. 1 fantasy receiver, but he’s a quality No. 2 fantasy wideout who can throw up big numbers any week. Verdict: Applaud

14. Vincent Jackson, Chargers – Jackson established himself as an every-week starter in fantasy leagues last year, and this year he’s taken the leap to being a No. 1 guy. His worst games are 56-yard efforts, and he’s totalled 373 yards in four games total. Plus, he has two touchdowns. He’s emerging as a No. 1 fantasy force, and that’s reason for a standing ovation. Verdict: Applaud

15. Braylon Edwards, Jets – Had we done this analysis last week, Edwards would have been judged a fraud with no hope for the rest of the season. But now that he’s been traded to the Jets, there’s reason for hope. Edwards had five catches for 64 yards and a score in his first game in green, and it looks like he’s immediately stepping in as a red-zone and down-field threat. And that’s even before he masters the offense. So while Edwards has had two awful fantasy games and has just 15 catches on the season and is averaging just 40 yards per game, we’ll applaud him based on what we expect going forward. He should at least be a regular fantasy starter now that he’s a Jet all the way. Verdict: Applaud

16. Brandon Marshall, Broncos – Marshall’s litany of off-season transgressions impeded his fantasy value entering the season, and owners were right to have questions about his role even though his talent was undeniable. But the trend is undoubtedly pointing up at this point. In each of the last three games, Marshall has had at least 70 yards from scrimmage and at least one touchdown . Those are No. 1 fantasy receiver numbers. Now that Kyle Orton has proven he can put up some numbers in Josh McDaniels’ offense, Marshall is a No. 1 fantasy wideout as he has been the past couple of years. Verdict: Applaud

17. Wes Welker, Patriots – Welker had a huge game with 12 catches for 93 yards in Week One, and then he missed the next two games due to injury. But last week he appeared to be fully back with eight catches for 86 yards and a score against the Broncos. So while Welker has been a bust so far for fantasy owners because he missed so much time, he’s now back to being a terrific No. 2 fantasy receiver. You can expect the same going forward. Verdict: Applaud

18. Roy Williams, Cowboys – Some penciled Williams in as a top No. 2 fantasy wideout, but I was skeptical entering the season. That skepticism was justified. He missed Week 5 with an injury, but before that he had two good games with at least 75 receiving yards and two games with 35 yards or less. Plus, he has just one touchdown on the season. Even though I was down on Williams, I wasn’t down enough. He’s no more than a No. 3 fantasy receiver going forward. Verdict: A fraud

19. DeSean Jackson, Eagles – I was high on Jackson before the year, ranking him as a borderline No. 2 wideout instead of as the No. 3 fantasy WR that most lists slated him to be. Thus far, that gamble has more or less paid off. He has just 13 catches in four games, but in two games he had more than 115 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown, and he added a return touchdown in Week One. He’s averaging 77 yards from scrimmage per game, which is quality production. While DJax isn’t a great player in a point-per-catch league, he’s been a solid fantasy stud. Last week’s one-catch, one-yard performance is a red flag, but we’ll consider that an anomaly until we see it again. Verdict: Applaud

20. Santana Moss, Redskins – Moss started really slow, with 5 catches for 41 yards in the first two games combined. But since then, he’s taken off with two really good games and a so-so game in Week 5. Moss’ unpredictability keeps him from being a sure-fire every week start, but if he’s a borderline No. 2 fantasy receiver for your team, you’re in OK shape. That means we’ll clap for him. Verdict: Applaud

21. Chad Ochocinco, Bengals – I was down on ol’ 8-5 coming into the season, but Chad has rebounded to once again become a No. 1 fantasy receiver. He’s averaging 70 yards per game, and in his one paltry yardage game (24 yards vs. Cleveland), he scored two touchdowns. So he’s provided consistent production. So if you drafted Ochocinco here, or even as the No. 10 or No. 12 overall receiver, you’ve gotten all you wanted and then some. Give Chad some attention, because he deserves applause from fantasy owners. Verdict: Applaud

22. Eddie Royal, Broncos – While Brandon Marshall is emerging, Royal has yet to come close to matching his ’08 production. I moved Royal up in the preseason as I started moving Marshall down, so Royal probably should have ended up around No. 30 at receiver before the opener given the uncertainty about Kyle Orton. But even at that marginal No. 3 starter level, his production – 18 catches for 148 yards and just one touchdown in five games – is lacking. He’s a good player, but the production has yet to earn applause. He may turn it around, but we can’t clap yet. Verdict: A fraud

23. Bernard Berrian, Vikings – When Brett Favre signed, we figured that Berrian would follow up on his sneaky good ’08 fantasy season by becoming a starting-caliber receiver. But Sidney Rice and Percy Harvin seem to be getting as many looks as Berrian is, and Berrian hasn’t produced by numbers. He has just 19 catches for 216 yards and one touchdown. Those aren’t starting-caliber receiver numbers, and the way the Vikings’ passing game is spreading things out, it’s hard to see Berrian stepping things up big time. So we can’t clap for him here. Verdict: A fraud

24. Lance Moore, Saints – Moore had a great season last year, but injuries have limited him to just three catches so far in ’09. Even though he’s missed one full game and been limited in others, we can’t clap. Moore might be a sleeper pickup going forward, but projecting him anywhere near a starting lineup is farfetched right now. Verdict: A fraud

25. Santonio Holmes, Steelers – After the ’08 playoffs, it seemed as though Holmes was emerging as the Steelers’ top receiver. But Hines Ward is among the league leaders in receiving yards right now, and rookie Mike Wallace is filling the Nate Washington role to give Pittsburgh a legit No. 3 receiver. Those factors, plus a few drops, have held down Holmes’ value. He’s averging 67 receiving yards per game, which is OK, but he has just one touchdown. At this draft position, Holmes needed to be starting quality, and he’s just a hair below that level. So this is a close verdict. And since we’re being generous, close points to clapping – barely. Verdict: Applaud

26. Antonio Bryant, Buccaneers – Bryant had a ridiculously season coming out of nowhere last year, and we were skeptical he could repeat it and be a No. 1 fantasy receiver again. So we put Bryant as a No. 3 receiver. But he has not yet even been that. He missed Week Two and had just three catches through Week 3, but he is coming on at least a little bit with nine catches for 106 yards and a touchdown the last two weeks. So that’s a sign of hope, but it’s not reason for applause, even at this draft position. Verdict: A fraud

27. Jerricho Cotchery, Jets – Cotchery ended up in this spot because he was an above-average receiver who was the default No. 1 option with the Jets. He delivered on that status early, with at least four catches for at least 71 yards in each of the first four games. He’s battling a hamstring now, which limited him to one catch for four yards, and now that Braylon Edwards is in town Cotchery’s role will slip, but we’ll clap for what he’s done so far. Cotchery was a terrific No. 2 fantasy receiver for the first quarter of the season, and he’ll be a solid No. 3 fantasy wideout the rest of the way. Verdict: Applaud

28. Lee Evans, Bills – We figured Evans was so good that he would maintain at least decent fantasy production even with Terrell Owens coming to town. But as the Bills’ offense has bottomed out, Evans’ numbers have been awful. He’s averaging just 52 yards per game, and he has just one touchdown. Even worse, he has more than 32 yards in just one game. Evans is still a talent, but his bad situation keeps him from being anywhere close to a fantasy starting lineup. Verdict: A fraud

29. Kevin Walter, Texans – Walter missed the first two games of the season due to injury, and since returning he has been up and down. He had a huge first game with seven catches for 96 yards and a score, but his next two weeks have averaged just 39 yards per game. Walter still should emerge as a No. 3 fantasy wideout given the Texans’ prolific offense, but he hasn’t yet, and so we can’t clap. Verdict: A fraud

30. Torry Holt, Jaguars – When he moved to Jacksonville, it appeared that Holt would be the Jags’ No. 1 receiver. But Mike Sims-Walker has assumed that role, keeping Holt’s value down. In the four games he’s played with Sims-Walker, Holt has had between 42 yards and 65 yards. He did break out in Week 5 with a 95-yard game, but that was because Sims-Walker was suspended. Holt hasn’t scored this year either. Holt’s worth owning, but he shouldn’t end up in your starting lineup unless the injury bug bites you multiple times in a single week. Verdict: A fraud

31. Hines Ward, Steelers – We downgraded Ward because we figured he had to slow down at some point, and we thought Santonio Holmes was ready to surpass him. But that hasn’t happened. Ward is fourth in the league with 440 receiving yards so far, and he scored his first touchdown last week. Ward is once again a solid fantasy starter and deserving of your applause. Verdict: Applaud

32. Laveranues Coles, Bengals – Coles has been a solid fantasy receiver for many years, and we figured that moving to the Bengals he would fall into the No. 2 role behind Chad Ochocinco. But Coles is behind Chris Henry and even Andre Caldwell in the Cincy WR pecking order, and his numbers have plummeted. He has just 10 catches for 78 yards through five games, and has just one touchdown. He’s not even ownable in fantasy leagues right now. It looks like the big contract the Bengals gave Coles isn’t going to pay off. Verdict: A fraud

33. Donald Driver, Packers – I’ve never been a Driver fan, even as he’s put up big fantasy numbers. This year, I projected him as just a marginal No. 3 fantasy wideout, but he once again has been better than I expected. He has at least four catches in every game and is averaging 72 yards per game. He also has two touchdowns. Those are No. 2 fantasy receiver numbers and good value for where he was drafted. Verdict: Applaud

34. Derrick Mason, Ravens – Mason was one of the hardest guys to rate before the season because he retired and then unretired. Still, we slated him as the Ravens’ best receiver and a marginal No. 3 fantasy guy. He has been the Ravens’ best receiver, and through five games he has 284 yards and two touchdowns. Even though he took a bagel in the catch column in Week 5, Mason has been a solid starting option given where he was drafted. And with Joe Flacco really emerging as a fantasy producer at quarterback, Mason should continue to have solid fantasy value. Verdict: Applaud

35. Devin Hester, Bears – We figured that with Jay Cutler in Chicago, someone had to emerge as a fantasy relevant receiver. We pegged Hester as the guy with the best opportunity for that, but the truth is that Cutler has spread the ball around using Hester, Johnny Knox, Earl Bennett, Greg Olsen, and even Kellen Davis. Hester has OK numbers through four games, with 189 yards and two touchdowns. But he’s had two great fantasy games and two horrible games. As a No. 3 fantasy receiver, he’s a boom or bust guy in your starting lineup, but this far down the draft order, that’s actually OK. Hester probably has 4-6 huge games left in him this season, and although it may be frustrating trying to find those games, that’s reason enough to clap for him at this draft position. Verdict: Applaud

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Filed under Applaud/A Fraud, Fantasy Football, Football Relativity

One response to “Applaud or a Fraud – Top 35 Wide Receivers

  1. Pingback: Applaud or a Fraud – Emerging Wide Receivers « Football Relativity

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