A few thoughts on last night’s season opener between the Titans and the Steelers, both from an on-field perspective and from a fantasy football perspective.
*I feel better than ever about including Tennessee among the top four teams in the league in our first Football Relativity comparison. Even without DT Albert Haynesworth, the Titans have a lot of pass-rush ability in their front four, with Jason Jones and Tony Brown providing it inside. This is a team that’s rock-solid on both lines and that has enough pieces elsewhere to be a tough team. Even though they lost, I’m even more convinced that this will be the best team in the AFC South.
*Pittsburgh is not a perfect team, but it’s a really tough team. This team went through the schedule gauntlet last year and found ways to win even when they’re not at their best. They did it again last night, and it goes to show that they’re never going to go down without a fight. Ben Roethlisberger is the microcosm of his team – always better at the end of the game than at the beginning.
*The injury to Troy Polamalu makes Pittsburgh’s defense less scary while he’s out. While Ryan Clark is a big hitter at safety, he’s not nearly the playmaker that Polamalu is. Without Polamalu, the Steelers will give up more big plays and make fewer, and that will hurt. The defense will still be good, but it won’t reach the special level that it can with Polamalu running around like a man possessed.
*Bo Scaie is really good. He’s the X-factor for the Titans offense. If Scaife can do every week what he did last night, the Titans offense will be a lot scarier. He’s not just a dependable third-down receiver; he’s also a threat to grab a 20-yard chunk at any time. Rookie Jared Cook isn’t going to replace Scaife this year (maybe in 2010 if Scaife leaves as a free agent), but the combo of Cook and Scaife on the field at the same time could be very interesting. Given how well-done Alge Crumpler is at this point, that has to be an option the Titans will explore.
*We saw the downside of both Titans running backs last night. Chris Johnson should get at least 50 yards each week, even against the toughest defenses, because he’ll bust at least one big play each week. (Last night it was a 32-yard run.) LenDale White, on the other hand, has very limited fantasy value unless he scores a touchdown. He’ll score his share of touchdowns this year, but against tough defenses he should be benched in most leagues because he’s not going to be a big yardage guy.
*Santonio Holmes has arrived. (This is a real football thought too.) Holmes is a legitimate No. 1 receiver from a real football sense, and he’s starting to take over for Hines Ward in that capacity for the Steelers. On my draft board, I had Holmes in the 20s among receivers, but this performance reminds me of his playoff run enough to say that Santonio is going to be a top-20 fantasy receiver this year. If you drafted him, you got a good deal. I thought Ward’s numbers, on the other hand, were a little higher than they will usually be. He’s more of a fantasy backup in most 10-12 team leagues this year.
*Scaife is probably going to end up being between 10 and 15 on the tight end chart this year. I don’t count on him scoring a lot of touchdowns, but if you’re in a yardage-heavy leage or even a point-per-reception league, Scaife has more value. He’s not an elite guy, but he’s going to be productive.
*We saw last night what Kerry Collins is as a fantasy quarterback – 200-250 yards and a touchdown most weeks. Those are backup numbers. Roethlisberger’s numbers (363 yards and one TD) will probably fluctuate from week to week, but he does have some fantasy upside this year because he has better targets than he’s had in past years.
*I have two guys in my office who executed the strategy of drafting both Willie Parker and Rashard Mendenhall for their fantasy teams this year. That’s a dangerous strategy with this team. Although both will play, you can’t start both because you could end up 25 total rushing yards, as they did last year. Parker is the starter, but he’s not going to have a ton of 100-yard games this year, I don’t believe. He’s a borderline fantasy starter. I’m falling off the Mendenhall bandwagon. At one point, I had him as a top-75 player, but I don’t like his running style, and he just hasn’t looked special to me either in this game or in the preseason game I watched this year. He was playing a terrific defense last night, so I don’t want to overreact, but it is time to sound the bust alarm on him.
*I don’t buy Kenny Britt yet, but if he continues to play as a starter, he could end up being worth a spot on your bench. Justin Gage, on the other hand, is probably worth a pick-up in 12-team leagues and bigger. Gage is the No. 1 wideout, and he’s healthy (which he wasn’t last year). He probably ends up as a top-40 wide receiver, which makes him ownable.