Fantasy Football: Players on the Move

This post is dedicated to assessing the fantasy value of players who have moved to new teams in the offseason. With these players, we’ll decide whether their numbers will rise, sink, or float (stay the same). If I forgot anyone, let me know and we’ll include them in comments.

We’ve already delved into the fantasy futures of several moving players at the top of the draft board. Here’s some linkage you can use to read about…

WRs Terrell Owens and T.J. Houshmandzedah are discussed here
TEs Tony Gonzalez and Kellen Winslow are discussed here
QB Matt Cassel and RB Derrick Ward is discussed here
And every pertinent fantasy rookie is discussed here
Outside of Football Relativity, this site is a good list of all fantasy-relevant free-agent movement

For all of our fantasy football coverage, click on the fantasy football category here on Football Relativity.

QB Jay Cutler, Bears – Cutler finally came into his own, at least from a fantasy perspective last year. He posted 4,256 passing yards and 25 touchdowns, with 2 rushing touchdowns thrown in as a bonus. Now that he’s in Chicago, those numbers can’t stay the same. He simply doesn’t have the same weapons in Chicago that he had in Denver. While Chicago’s tight ends, Greg Olsen and Desmond Clark, are above average, the receiving corps is not. Maybe Cutler’s old college teammate Earl Bennett will emerge, and maybe return guru Devin Hester continues to develop as a receiver and becomes a true No. 1. But there aren’t enough targets there for Cutler to throw for 4,000 yards again. So Cutler’s fantasy numbers will sink to the point that he looks much, much better as a backup with upside than he would as a guy you’re depending on to start in your lineup. Verdict: Sink

QB Byron Leftwich, Buccaneers – Leftwich rebuilt his reputation, which had been tarnished as he lost starting jobs in Jacksonville and then Atlanta, by serving as a backup in Pittsburgh and filling in well in spot duty a couple of times. He looks to be the opening day starter in Tampa, but don’t bank too much on that. The Bucs like Luke McCown and gave him a decent offseason contract, and at some point rookie Josh Freeman will get a look – the question is how long that look will be. Leftwich is a marginal fantasy backup who likely won’t surpass 20 touchdown passes. So take this rise with three grains of salt. Verdict: Rise

QB Kyle Orton, Broncos – Amidst all the attention paid to Cutler’s move to Chicago, we tend to overlook Orton’s new home in Denver. Orton actually had a decent year in Chicago last year when he finally established himself as a starter for the first time since his extended rookie-year fill-in performance. He threw for almost 2,900 yards and 18 touchdowns (with three rushing TDs thrown in) despite having an extremely laughable cast of receivers. He’ll have better targets in Denver, from Brandon Marshall to Eddie Royal to Tony Scheffler. If Marshall leaves, this recommendation loses its punch, but for now Orton could near a top-15 quarterback status and could actually outperform Cutler from a fantasy standpoint. Verdict: Rise

RB Correll Buckhalter, Broncos – Buckhalter had been a backup in Philly since 2001, and despite some repeated injuries that halted his career, he emerged as a solid backup and fill-in for Brian Westbrook. Last year, he had almost 700 yards from scrimmage and a total of four touchdowns. In Denver, he looks to be the main backup to rookie Knowshon Moreno. Watching the system that new Broncos coach Josh McDaniels used in New England, you would guess that he would use more than one back, which could open the door to Buckhalter. Moreno’s far and away better, and he’s likely going to be a fantasy stud, but it’s still going to be possible for Buckhalter to repeat his ’08 performance in his new home. Verdict: Float

RB Maurice Morris, Lions – Like Buckhalter, Morris was a long-time backup (he had been in Seattle since 2002) who used free agency to break free. Morris looks to be the main backup to Kevin Smith now in Detroit. While Morris never had a great season, he had at least 500 rushing yards in each of the last three seasons. He scored two touchdowns last year as well, both as a receiver not a rusher. Morris is no starter, as he proved when he couldn’t usurp Julius Jones in Seattle, but he’s not a terrible backup. Still, behind a rebuilding Detroit offensive line, it’s hard to see Morris reaching 500 yards for a fourth straight season. Verdict: Sink

RB Dominic Rhodes, Bills – The Bills added Rhodes, who had a renaissance in Indy last year, after they found out that Marshawn Lynch was going to be suspended for three games to open the season. But don’t overvalue Rhodes because of that. Fred Jackson, not Rhodes, still looks to be Lynch’s No. 1 backup and early-season replacement. And remember too that Rhodes was not productive in his only other season away from Indy, a forgettable ’07 campaign in Oakland. There’s no way Rhodes nears his totals of 840 combined yards and 9 touchdowns from ’08. Verdict: Sink

RB Fred Taylor, Patriots – Taylor spent 11 years in Jacksonville and is probably the Jaguar franchise’s greatest player ever. He has more than 11,000 career yards, and has had seven 1,000 yard seasons. But last year, as Maurice Jones-Drew emerged as a true star, Taylor lost carries, and he ended up with 556 rushing yards and just one touchdown. In New England, Taylor will share carries again, but he certainly should get more chances than he had last year in Jacksonville. Don’t expect too much, but closer to 700 yards and 3-4 touchdowns is a reasonable projection for Taylor. Verdict: Rise

RB Leonard Weaver, Eagles – Weaver is kind of an unsung guy, but he had carved out a role as a fullback and short-yardage guy with the Seahawks. He moves to a similar offense in Philly, where Weaver should share the backfield often with Brian Westbrook. Weaver’s numbers – 250 total yards with two touchdowns – aren’t a fantasy factor, but if you’re looking for a emergency fill-in (and it has to be a major emergency), Weaver will be on the field enough that he could grab a cheap touchdown. Verdict: Float

RB Jason Wright, Cardinals – With Cleveland, Wright was a fantasy sleeper last year after a sneakily productive 2007 season, but he never got many chances behind Jamal Lewis last year. Wright ended up with less than 250 total yards from scrimmage and just one touchdown. In Arizona, his role will be the third-down role that J.J. Arrington held last season. Rookie Beanie Wells and Tim Hightower won’t give Wright many carries, but the fact that Wright has 20 catches in each of the last two years shows that he has at least a little value. Don’t expect too much, but in mega-sized leagues Wright belongs on your draft board. Verdict: Float

WR Laveranues Coles, Bengals – Coles, who was a long-time contributor with the Jets and the Redskins, moves to Cincinnati this year to replace T.J. Houshmandzedah as Chad Ochocinco’s running mate. While Coles is a vet, he’s still pretty productive – he had 70 catches for 850 yards and 7 touchdowns last year. Those numbers will be hard to match in Cincinnati, given Ochocinco’s presence. But Houshmandzedah always had good fantasy numbers, and that means that Coles has an opening. His numbers will dip a little, but he’s still a borderline fantasy starter in all but the smallest leagues. Verdict: Sink

WR Ronald Curry, Rams – Curry has loads of talent and potential, and the former college quarterback (and point guard) had three 50-catch seasons in Oakland. Now he’s in St. Louis, after signing with Detroit and then being traded to the Gateway City. Curry had just 19 catches for 181 yards and two touchdowns last year, and in St. Louis he looks to be a starter, which can’t help but increase his fantasy value. So while Curry isn’t going to go much past 40 catches in a moribund offense (or maybe even 30), his fantasy numbers were buoyed by his late-July trade. Verdict: Rise

WR Bobby Engram, Chiefs – Engram is an underappreciated receiver, but over his 13-year career he has 645 total catches and 79 touchdowns. After a huge ’07 campaign in Seattle, injuries limited in 2008 to 47 catches for 489 yards, and he didn’t score. Now he moves to Kansas City, where he looks to be a solid third-down option for Matt Cassel. Dwayne Bowe and the emerging Mark Bradley are still above Engram in K.C.’s pecking order, but Engram should find a nice role with the Chiefs. His catch numbers will decline, but he’ll get in the end zone a time or two to create equilibrium in his fantasy numbers. Verdict: Float

WR Jabar Gaffney, Broncos – Gaffney, who never realized his potential as a second-round draft pick in Houston, carved out a solid role as a third receiver in New England. He surpassed 35 catches and 400 yards in each of the last two seasons, combining for seven touchdowns in those two seasons. Now he moves with former Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels to Denver, and it appears that Gaffney will have a similar role in Denver to the one he had in New England. While Gaffney is good enough to carve out a role behind Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal, his quarterback isn’t good enough to keep Gaffney’s numbers at the same level. Unless Marshall leaves Denver or holds out, Gaffney’s catch total is bound for the 20s, not the 30s. Verdict: Sink

WR Joey Galloway, Patriots – Galloway has played 14 years, but last season broke his string of three straight 1,000-yard campaigns. But last year, because of injuries, he had just 13 catches for 138 yards. Those numbers are bound to go up now that he’s in New England; the question is how much. Randy Moss and Wes Welker are still the top dogs among New England’s receiving corps, and Greg Lewis will make a few big plays, but Galloway should eventually establish himself in three-receiver sets and end up replicating what Jabar Gaffney brought to the Patriots over the past two years – 35 catches, 400-plus yards, and 3-4 touchdowns. Verdict: Rise

WR Torry Holt, Jaguars – After a Hall-of-Fame caliber career in St. Louis, Holt moves to Jacksonville to lead a young (check that; it’s a preemie) receiver corps in Jacksonville. With Mike Walker and three rookies as his competition, Holt is the unquestioned alpha dog in Jacksonville. So the question is whether Holt can match his ’08 numbers – 64 catches, 796 yards, and three TDs – in his new home. It’s hard to project more from Holt, but similar numbers are achievable. Holt is now a No. 3 receiver in most leagues, so don’t overrate him, but don’t be scared to consider him useful. Verdict: Float

WR Bryant Johnson, Lions – The Lions added Johnson and Dennis Northcutt (and for a while, Ronald Curry) in an effort to find a running mate for Calvin Johnson. Bryant Johnson, who never really lived up to his billing as a first-round pick back in Arizona, still has had between 40 and 49 catches in each of the last five seasons. That seems about right for him in Detroit, but with a rookie quarterback looking to get most of the snaps this season, Johnson’s other numbers – 546 yards and three touchdowns – seem a little high. Something like 40-400-2 looks right, and that’s enough of a dip that we need to note it. Verdict: Sink

WR Greg Lewis, Patriots – Lewis is no better than the fourth receiver in New England, which is similar to the role he ended up with in Philly. Lewis is the kind of player who will break open deep every third game and catch two of those three bombs. That’s not going to be enough to give him fantasy relevance in ’09 unless Randy Moss gets hurt. Lewis had 19 catches for 247 yards and a touchdown last year, and he’ll be hard pressed to even match those catch and yardage totals this year. Verdict: Sink

WR Brandon Lloyd, Broncos – Lloyd is on his fourth team, moving on after an average season in Chicago in ’08. The Broncos signed him after Brandon Marshall began making noise about wanting a trade. Lloyd is only the third-best Brandon in the Broncos’ receiving corps (behind Marshall and Stokely), and he won’t come close to his 26-catch, 364-yard, two-touchdown season unless Marshall prompts a deal or holds out. Verdict: Sink

WR Dennis Northcutt, Lions – Northcutt went to Jacksonville in ’08 to be the leader of the Jaguars’ receiving corps, but he managed just 44 catches for 545 yards and two touchdowns as he saw Mike Walker and Matt Jones surpass him in the pecking order. Now Northcutt moves to Detroit via trade, where he will combine with Bryant Johnson to try to complement Calvin Johnson. Northcutt has never impressed me, and so I think Bryant Johnson will end up doing more than Northcutt. That spells sink to me. Verdict: Sink

WR Nate Washington, Titans – Washington was a big-dollar signing by the Titans, who see him as a starter across from Justin Gage. He emerged as a solid deep threat and third receiver in Pittsburgh last year, catching 40 passes for 631 yards and three touchdowns. Washington should be able to step up to a starting role in Tennessee, and even though the Titans’ offense isn’t pass happy, that would mean more catches – 50-to-60 – and a few more yards. He won’t be able to keep his yards-per-catch average above 15 as a starter, but he will be more productive. All that will make him a borderline fantasy starter in most leagues, with the possibility of upside that could make him even more of a fantasy factor. Verdict: Rise

TE Chris Baker, Patriots – Baker, a long-time Jet, saw his playing time taken away in the Meadowlands because of Dustin Keller, and so he has moved on to New England. He’ll be contending with Benjamin Watson and ex-Buc Alex Smith for catches in New England, and that means he definitely won’t be the threat he was in ’06 and ’07. We don’t even see Baker matching his ’08 numbers of 21 catches for 194 yards. Verdict: Sink

TE L.J. Smith, Ravens – After a long career in Philly, Smith moves to Baltimore, where he looks to serve as a backup and safety net for Todd Heap, who has been injury prone in recent years. That means that Smith, who has been a borderline fantasy starter at tight end for many years, is less than that this year. His numbers will fall from his 37-catch, 298-yard, three-TD level of last year, but he’s worth watching in his new home, especially if Heap gets hurt. Verdict: Sink

PK Mike Nugent, Buccaneers – Nugent lost his job to Jay Feely last year after a training-camp injury. Now he moves to Tampa, where he will try to beat out Matt Bryant for a starting job. The guess here is that Nugent takes that job, but even if he does we don’t see him as a 100-point kicker. That would make Nugent a bye-week fill-in, not an every-week option. Verdict: Rise

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1 Comment

Filed under Fantasy Football, Football Relativity, Rise/Sink/Float

One response to “Fantasy Football: Players on the Move

  1. Pingback: Fantasy Football: Receivers update « Football Relativity

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