Deja vu – Evaluating the FR mock draft

Before we evaluate our mixed bag of a mock draft, a few notes:
*We’ve updated the trades and swaps post with the two player-related trades from this weekend’s draft. (In case you missed it, three players moved from the Jets to the Browns in the Mark Sanchez deal, and the Pats dealt Ellis Hobbs to the Eagles.) That post is now final, and we’ll start a new one for deals between now and the beginning of the season if there are any.
*Check out the first draft thoughts and second draft thoughts on the draft. We’ll do a relativity post comparing all 32 teams to each other later this week, but we want to be thorough with that one.

Now that the preliminaries are out of the way, here are the first-round results, compared to what we predicted. As you can see, we only hit three picks dead on, but we were one or two picks away on a bunch of other guys.

1. QB Matthew Stafford, Lions – as predicted

2. OT Jason Smith, Rams – as predicted

3. DE Tyson Jackson, Chiefs – predicted 9th, off 6 spots

4. OLB Aaron Curry, Seahawks – predicted 3rd, off 1 spot

5. QB Mark Sanchez, Jets – predicted 4th, off 1 spot

6. OT Andre Smith, Bengals – predicted 7th, off 1 spot

7. WR Darrius Heyward-Bey, Raiders – predicted 17th, off 10 spots

8. OT Eugene Monroe, Jaguars – predicted 6th, off 2 spots

9. DT B.J. Raji, Packers – predicted 12th, off 3 spots

10. WR Michael Crabtree, 49ers – predicted 5th, off 5 spots

11. DE Aaron Maybin, Bills – predicted 16th, off 5 spots

12. RB Knowshon Moreno, Broncos – predicted 26th, off 14 spots

13. DE Brian Orakpo, Redskins – predicted 11th, off 2 spots

14. CB Malcolm Jenkins, Saints – predicted 8th, off 6 spots

15. OLB Brian Cushing, Texans – predicted 14th, off 1 spot

16. OLB Larry English, Chargers – predicted 23rd, off 7 spots

17. QB Josh Freeman, Buccaneers – predicted 22nd, off 5 spots

18. DE Robert Ayers, Broncos – predicted 13th, off 5 spots

19. WR Jeremy Maclin, Eagles – predicted 10th, off 9 spots

20. TE Brandon Pettigrew, Lions – predicted 28th, off 8 spots

21. C Alex Mack, Browns – not predicted in first round

22. WR Percy Harvin, Vikings – not predicted in first round

23. OT Michael Oher, Ravens – predicted 15th, off 8 spots

24. DT Peria Jerry, Falcons – predicted 21st, off 3 spots

25. CB Vontae Davis, Dolphins – predicted 29th, off 4 spots

26. OLB Clay Matthews, Packers – predicted 27th, off 1 spot

27. RB Donald Brown, Colts – not predicted in first round

28. C Eric Wood, Bills – not predicted in first round

29. WR Hakeem Nicks, Giants – not predicted in first round

30. WR Kenny Britt, Titans – not predicted in first round

31. RB Chris Wells, Cardinals – as predicted

32. DT Evander Hood, Steelers – predicted 30th, off 2 spots

So there you go. We had direct hits at 1, 2, and 31, while missing five other players by one spot and another two by two spots. Overall, we hit 26 of 32 first-rounders, which is OK but not great. I thought those centers and wide receivers would last until the early second round. Of the 6 guys who I put in the first round who didn’t get drafted there, five went in the first 11 picks of the second round, and the last went at No. 54 overall. So there were no complete embarrassments there.

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