Draft OP: The Michael Crabtree conundrum

To me, the most interesting player at the top of the first round this year is Texas Tech WR Michael Crabtree. He’s a physical freak who had ridiculous numbers in the two collegiate seasons he played. (231 catches, 3,127 yards, 41 TDs)

But Crabtree’s draft stock has slipped a bit since the season ended because he needs foot surgery that will knock him out of some offseason workouts both before the draft and after he is selected. That has caused his stock to fall out of the top three or four into the back half of the top 10. (This mock draft from PFW this week slotted Crabtree 10th.)

But should that happen? Will the team in the top 10 that takes Crabtree rue Draft Day ’09 because he doesn’t pan out? Or will the teams who pass on Crabtree live to regret it? An outlandish prediction is coming, but first some history…

This decade, there have been six receivers taken in the top 5. Four have lived up to the hype and become true No. 1 receivers who are in the league’s top echelon– Calvin Johnson, Braylon Edwards (see 2007 if you don’t believe me), Larry Fitzgerald, and Andre Johnson. Two busted out — Peter Warrick and Charles Rogers.

Nine more receivers were drafted between six and 10. Only one is an unqualified success — Plaxico Burress, who, despite his 2008 problems, has been very good for a long time now. Roy Williams had some success, and Ted Ginn Jr. showed some promise last year. Reggie Williams, Travis Taylor, and Koren Robinson each had at least a moment or two, while Troy Williamson, Mike Williams, and David Terrell just didn’t have any moments.

So history says that top five receivers are a good bet, but that often receivers who go between 6 and 10 were reaches who weren’t worth it. I beileve that Crabtree belongs in the former group, not the latter. He’s a top five talent, but his lingering postseason injury might knock him below the fifth pick. If that happens, he will be a steal.

The fact is that to get a truly elite receiver, you have to invest a top-5 pick. (Look at this relativity comparison; 3 of the top 4 receivers were top-5 picks, while the other – Steve Smith – was a third-round pick because of his diminutive size.) Crabtree can reach close to that level, and there is no one else in this draft – not speedsters like Percy Harvin or Jeremy Maclin or big guns Darrius Heyward-Bey or Hakeem Nicks – who come close in comparison.

Crabtree is the prize. He’s going to be an elite receiver a la Calvin or Andre Johnson or Larry Fitzgerald. He’s a true No. 1 receiver. And recent history says that if you want a guy like that, you probably have to invest a top-five pick.

 So any team starting with the Rams at No. 2 should consider him strongly. The Rams can take an offensive tackle because there’s value and need there, and the Chiefs (Dwayne Bowe) and Lions (Calvin Johnson) have No. 1s. But if Seattle thinks adding T.J. Houshmandzadeh (turning 32 in September) means they don’t need Crabtree, they’re wrong. Crabtree would be great there. If the Browns at 5 trade Edwards (and that’s the chatter), Crabtree would be an ideal replacement. And I don’t believe the Bengals at 6 can afford to let Crabtree by, especially considering the limited career span Chad Ocho Cinco has left in Cincy.

The bottom line is that whichever team drafts Crabtree – even if he goes as high as 2nd overall – will get its money worth. Were I drafting, he would be the No. 1 player on my board. The injury conundrum may be confusing, but the conclusion should be this: Take Crabtree and reap the rewards.

Top 10 drafted receivers this decade:
2008 – none
2007 – Calvin Johnson (2nd to Detroit), Ted Ginn Jr. (9th to Miami)
2006 – none
2005 – Braylon Edwards (3rd to Cleveland), Troy Williamson (7th to Minnesota), Mike Williams (10th to Detroit)
2004 – Larry Fitzgerald (3rd to Arizona), Roy Williams (7th to Detroit), Reggie Williams (9th to Jacksonville)
2003 – Charles Rogers (2nd to Detroit), Andre Johnson (3rd to Houston)2002 – none
2001 – David Terrell (8th to Chicago), Koren Robinson (9th to Seattle)
2000 – Peter Warrick (4th to Cincinnati), Plaxico Burress (8th to Pittsburgh), Travis Taylor (10th to Baltimore)

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2 Comments

Filed under NFL draft, outlandish prediction

2 responses to “Draft OP: The Michael Crabtree conundrum

  1. Pingback: RP: Draft boom and bust by position - Offense « Football Relativity

  2. Pingback: Preja Vu - The Football Relativity 2009 Mock Draft « Football Relativity

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