Tag Archives: trent dilfer

Who’s QB No. 3?

Photo of Washington Huskies quarterback Jake L...

Jake Locker has all the tools - or does he? Image via Wikipedia

 We’ve been breaking down the NFL draft here on the blog, and today we come to the question of which quarterback ranks third at the position in this class. We’ve already discussed the top 2, Cam Newton and Blaine Gabbert, and we believe both will be off the board by the fifth pick. So which QB is number 3? Let’s break down the prospects…

Ryan Mallett - We’ve already discussed Mallett and why we don’t consider him a first-round prospect. We’ll rest on that analysis and declare that Mallett’s not No. 3 among this year’s QBs.

Jake Locker - Locker, in many ways, is a coach’s dream. By all accounts, he’s an A-plus human being, a team player, and a natural leader. Plus, he has physical gifts that are off the charts. He’s big, strong, and fast. And a year ago, Locker was getting buzz as the potential No. 1 overall pick. But for all of Locker’s great qualities, his performance has never added up to the sum of the parts. He never completed more than 58 percent of his passes in a season at Washington, and when accuracy is missing, quarterbacks fail. It seems strange to say for a four-year college player, but in many ways Locker is a raw prospect. And while it’s fine to be a developmental player, the fact that Locker is so loved by his coaches makes me wonder whether he can truly be coached up. With his good attitude, if he could have improved, shouldn’t he have already? That nagging feeling causes us to drop Locker out of the first-round range as a prospect. He’s not QB No. 3.

Christian Ponder - Ponder, the Florida State product, seems to be the darling of the statitistical community this year. (K.C. Joyner makes the case here; ESPN insider required.) While Ponder is efficient throwing the ball and can also move around well, there’s one stat that bothers me about him. Ponder missed two games last year with an elbow injury and four the year before with a shoulder problem. So can he handle the pounding of a 16-game NFL season? That’s a major red flag to us. When a team invests a second-round pick in Ponder, we’ll likely praise the pick, but moving him into the late first round as the No. 3 quarterback seems to risky for us.

Colin Kaepernick – Kaepernick is the wild card of this QB crew. He played in the Pistol offense in Nevada, and the fact that he wasn’t often under center raises a question. But he has good size, good speed and running ability, and a ton of production at Nevada. He spread the ball around effectively and showed accuracy. And while accuracy doesn’t always translate from college spread offenses to the NFL, Kaepernick is an intriguing prospect. We won’t make him the No. 3 QB, but we’re tempted to do so. He’ll be a strong second-round pick for someone.

Andy Dalton – Finally, we have found our No. 3 quarterback. Dalton was a four-year starter at TCU, and his completion percentage went up every year. He played in big games and delivered, and he has mobility. Really, the biggest drawbacks for Dalton are physical. He’s just 6-2, which is a big small for a quarterback, and his arm strength makes most analysts feel he needs to be in a West Coast style of system to succeed. But Trent Dilfer praised Dalton as a potential late first-round pick, and we agree. (As did scout Frank Cooney.) Like Drew Brees, once the 32nd overall pick, Dalton seems to be a guy who will bring a strong future at a reasonable price. So we’ve slotted Dalton as QB No. 3.

3 Comments

Filed under Football Relativity, NFL draft

RP: Trading for backup quarterbacks

Kevin Kolb

Trade target Kevin Kolb. Image via Wikipedia

In the midst of the NFL lockout, one rumor that won’t go away is that the Eagles are looking to deal backup QB Kevin Kolb to a team that wants to make him a starter. Kolb, who is signed to a reasonable contract and who sits behind Michael Vick on the depth chart, says he’s ready to start, and his performance in fill-in performances supports that belief. And Eagles head coach Andy Reid seems open to granting Kolb’s trade wish if the price is right.

But is this wise for the Eagles? And is trading for Kolb a good move for a quarterback needy team? Let’s do a research project to see the results other trades in which teams dealt for someone else’s backup quarterback and made him a starter.
*If  you can think of an example we forgot, leave a comment and we’ll add it in below.

2010 – Chargers trade Charlie Whitehurst and 2010 second-round pick (60th overall) to Seahawks for 2010 second-round pick (40th overall) and 2011 third-round pick - Whitehurst, a former third-round pick, was never going to surpass Philip Rivers in San Diego, but he had also fallen behind vet Billy Volek on the depth chart. So when the Seahawks wanted Whitehurst to compete for their starting job, the Bolts made the deal. The Seahawks didn’t give up as much as other teams had for QBs they knew would start for them, but it was a fairly hefty price for an unproven backup. In his first year in Seattle, Whitehurst couldn’t beat out veteran Matt Hasselbeck, and he started just two games. While his numbers weren’t great, he did lead the Hawks to a Week 17 victory over St. Louis to clinch a playoff spot. Hasselbeck is now a free agent, and the Seahawks want to keep him, which speaks to Whitehurst’s current value. But the jury is still out on whether Seattle got what it paid for in this deal.

2009 – Patriots trade Matt Cassel and LB Mike Vrabel to Chiefs for second-round pick (34th overall) - Cassel, who had been a backup at USC and with the Patriots, got his chance to play in 2008 when Tom Brady suffered a season-ending injury in Week 1. Cassel acquited himself well, to the point that the Patriots put the franchise tag on him after the season. That was really a move to protect his value, and New England soon traded Cassel to Kansas City for an early second-round pick. That was a pretty nice return on investement for the Pats, who were obviously going to turn back to Brady as their starter. Cassel struggled a bit in his first year as a starter, but he really came on in 2010 to show he can be at least an above-average NFL starting QB. At this point, K.C. has to be thrilled to have Cassel, even after paying a hefty price.

2007 – Falcons trade Matt Schaub and 2007 10th overall pick to Texans for 2007 8th overall pick, 2007 second-round pick, and 2008 second-round pick – This is the one example that worked out far better for the team acquiring the backup quarterback. Schaub had started two games behind Michael Vick in Atlanta before the Falcons were able to get a pretty nice ransom for the former fourth-round pick. Schaub went on to the Texans, where he supplaned disappointing No. 1 overal pick David Carr. Schaub has developed into a prolific passer and has started every game when healthy over the past four seasons. The Falcons, meanwhile, didn’t know that their first season without Schaub would also be their first season without Vick, whose legal troubles began that year. So under first-year head coach Bobby Petrino, Atlanta started a poo-poo platter of Joey Harrington, Chris Redman, and Byron Leftwich that season. Petrino bailed and went to Arkansas, and the Falcons ended up drafting Matt Ryan as their new franchise QB. Atlanta bounced back from this trade, but it was as disastrous at first for the Falcons as it was shrewd for the Texans.

2004 – Eagles trade A.J. Feeley to Dolphins for 2005 second-round pick – Andy Reid learned from Ron Wolf, the GM of the team he had been an assistant coach for, when it came to trading quarterbacks. So once Donovan McNabb was an established starter, Reid dealt third-stringer Feeley to the Dolphins for a pretty high price – a second-rounder. Feeley had been a fifth-round pick, but when McNabb and backup Koy Detmer were injured in 2002, Feeley went 4-1 as a starter, helping the Eagles land a playoff berth. He was stuck on the bench another year before the Dolphins anted up to get him. But Feeley started just eight games in Miami and played poorly, losing the starting job to Jay Fiedler as coach Dave Wannstedt got forced out. Within two years, Feeley was gone. The Eagles, meanwhile, got WR Reggie Brown out of the deal as a draft pick, and actually got Feeley back as a backup a few years later. Philly won in this deal, and Miami definitely lost.

2001 – Packers trade Matt Hasselbeck plus 2001 17th overall pick and seventh-round pick to Seahawks for 2001 10th overall pick and third-round pick - Hasselbeck was the third Packers backup under Brett Favre who was traded to become a starter elsewhere, and he was the most valuable. For one, GM Wolf had built up the value of his backups enough to show that they were worthwhile investments for trading partners. Plus, the Seahawks made the trade under GM/coach Mike Holmgren, who had been in Green Bay when Hasselbeck was drafted in 1998. Hasselbeck was a sixth-round pick who developed into a preseason star in Green Bay, but he was never going to get a chance to start with Favre in place. So he moved on to Seattle. It took a while for Hasselbeck to beat out Trent Dilfer for the starting job in Seattle, but Hasselbeck eventually developed into a three-time Pro Bowler who led the Seahawks to several playoff berths and one Super Bowl. The fact that Seattle lost just one draft pick (a third-rounder) while giving up a few spots in the first round was a solid investment. Both teams came out of this deal as winners.

2000 – Packers trade Aaron Brooks and TE Lamont Hall to Saints for 2001 third-round pick and LB K.D. Williams – Brooks was the Packers’ third-string quarterback as a fourth-round pick out of Virginia, but after a year Ron Wolf was able to deal him to New Orleans for a third-rounder. The move was worthwhile for the Saints, as Brooks became a starter his first year and ended up starting 82 games for the team. Meanwhile, the Pack once again took advantage of Favre’s durability and turned a backup quarterback into a better pick than the one it had spent on him. So this deal was another win-win.

1999 – Broncos trade Jeff Lewis to Panthers for 1999 third-round pick and 2000 fourth-round pick - The Panthers, looking for a franchise quarterback, dealt for Lewis, who was a former fourth-round draft pick who was backing up John Elway in Denver. But Lewis couldn’t beat out veteran Steve Beuerlein in Carolina. Lewis was a backup for two years, in part because of a severe knee injury, getting only nominal playing time after the Panthers were eliminated from the playoff chase in 2000. And after George Seifert cut Beuerlein following the 2000 season to clear the way for Lewis, he fell flat on his face and was released at the end of training camp. The Panthers, led by rookie Chris Weinke, fell to 1-15 in 2001. The Broncos, meanwhile, dealt Lewis at the top of his value, because they already knew that Brian Griese had surpassed Lewis on the depth chart. After Elway’s retirement in 1999, Griese surpassed Bubby Brister and became a four-year starter for Denver. Denver fared fine in this trade, but it was a disaster for the Panthers.
(The short-lived Lewis era was when I covered the Panthers. Two funny stories: First, Lewis referred to himself as No. 8, leading reporters to joke that he was the first athlete to talk about himself not in the third person but the fourth person. Secondly, when Lewis saw a group of out-of-shape reporters going to play basketball during training camp, he looked at them and said, “Don’t blow a knee,” pointing back to the basketball injury that had derailed his career. It was the only time we saw a sense of humor from Lewis.)

1995 – Packers trade Mark Brunell to Jaguars for 1995 third-round pick and 1995 fifth-round pick – Brunell, who had spent two years backing up Brett Favre in Green Bay, was Jacksonville’s choice as their franchise quarterback for their first season, despite the fact that he had thrown just 27 NFL passes. It was a great move for the Jags, who got a three-time Pro Bowler for a very reasonable price. The Packers, meanwhile, had figured out that starter Favre was not just a Pro Bowl player but also an iron man who wouldn’t miss any time. So Wolf turned Brunell, a former fifth-round pick, into third- and fifth-round picks. The deal ended up as a win-win for both sides.

6 Comments

Filed under Football Relativity, NFL trades

Who is Mark Sanchez?

Mark Sanchez

Mark Sanchez. Image via Wikipedia

Earlier this week, in our Football Relativity post, we analyzed who Aaron Rodgers is compared to other quarterbacks. (See the Packers entry for those thoughts.) We thought that was an interesting exercise, and so it’s no surprise that since then we’ve set our minds to try to figure out another of the NFL’s final four quarterbacks, Mark Sanchez.

And we’ve decided: Mark Sanchez is at least Trent Dilfer. And Mark Sanchez might be Ben Roethlisberger.

Let us explain.

Sanchez is not yet a consistent quarterback. He has sterling playoff success in his first two pro seasons, notching four road playoff wins thus far. And in these playoff games, Sanchez has rarely carried the Jets. But he has made big plays. Last year against the Bengals, for example, Sanchez hit a big throw to Dustin Keller that ended up being a key play in the game. This year, even in his inconsistent game against the Colts, Sanchez found Braylon Edwards on a key play to turn Nick Folk’s game-winning field goal attempt from a long kick to a far easier attempt.

In these ways, Sanchez is like Dilfer, who quarterbacked the Ravens to their Super Bowl run a decade ago. Dilfer was not a dominant force for those Ravens teams, but he avoided crucial mistakes, and he seemed to hit one big throw a game to set up a touchdown. Throws to Shannon Sharpe against the Raiders and to Brandon Stokley against the Giants still come to mind. Sanchez can do this for the Jets right now.

But there is a key difference between Sanchez and Dilfer in this – that was the peak of Dilfer’s career, while Sanchez is still growing. He can get better. And in that way Sanchez is like his AFC championship game counterpart, Ben Roethlisberger.

Roethlisberger has won two Super Bowls thus far, but it’s hard to remember at this point in his career that in the first win, five years ago, Roethlisberger was the Steelers’ weak link. His Super Bowl 40 performance against the Seahawks was far from spectacular, but it was good enough to let the Steelers’ talent win out. And from that point, Big Ben kept developing, and three years later his performance against the Cardinals was so terrific that he outdueled Kurt Warner in a shootout, complete with a game-winning TD throw to Santonio Holmes at the end of the game. Big Ben was a different quarterback in his second title than he was in his first.

And that’s the hope for Sanchez and the Jets Since Dilfer and Brad Johnson (Buccaneers) won Super Bowls in back-to-back years, the list of Super Bowl winning quarterbacks looks like a who’s who. Tom Brady has won three, Roethlisberger two, Peyton Manning one, Drew Brees one, and Eli Manning one.

We’ve always like Sanchez – we favored him over Matthew Stafford in the draft two years ago – but the truth is that if Sanchez is to join that list of Super Bowl winners, it will have to be a la Dilfer. But if Sanchez is really growing like Roethlisberger did, as we suspect he might be, then Jets fans have a lot to be excited about – both this weekend and in the future.

2 Comments

Filed under Football Relativity, NFL playoffs

FR: New and moved announcers for 2010

Last year we started a tradition of comparing the new announcers added to the roster of major national outlets for the NFL season. (Here’s last year’s post.) In this comparison, we’ll compare the importance of new hires, major movers, and some guys who added side jobs this season. The 10 level indicates the announcers with the best chance of making a national splash; the 1 level is for announcers who you probably won’t even notice in 2010.

10 – Jim Mora, Fox – The younger of the coaches named Mora, who was the Seahawks’ head coach last year, will move onto Fox’s No. 3 announcing team with Dick Stockton and Charles Davis. That’s a soft landing spot for Mora, because Davis is a pro who will allow Mora to feel comfortable finding things to say instead of forcing out comments after every play. But Mora will face the challenge that all former coaches have – especially those who have dreams of coaching once again. Can he be critical? Can he be honest? Or will he pull punches in an effort to avoid making enemies? Mora has the gumption to be honest, and if he does he could develop a la Brian Billick. But if Mora doesn’t do so, it’ll be incredibly easy for Fox to move him down the roster – or off it entirely. Still, Mora has the privilege of one of the higher profile new announcing gigs.

9 – none

8 – Kurt Warner, Fox – The recently retired Warner, who has done some Arena League games for NFL network this summer, takes the route of many high-profile quarterbacks and lands in announcing. But unlike many of those QBs, instead of starting in a high-profile studio role or top game-announcer, he’s starting at the bottom of the national totem pole. He takes over for Trent Green on Fox’s No. 7 team, which means he’ll only work selected weeks when Fox has a full game slate. That may actually be a blessing for Warner as he seeks to develop as an announcer. This role will give him room to grow and make mistakes without being in the national glare, and if he emerges he certainly has the street cred to move up the charts quickly. But Warner is also close enough to the bottom of Fox’s roster that, if he struggles, he can be cut without much notice. So Warner must show signs of ability quickly, or else he’ll be looking for a new post-retirement career.

7 – none

6 – none

5 – Joe Theismann, NFL Network - Theismann, who for years irritated viewers with his verbose and grandiose declarations of the most obvious things on Sunday Night Football, joins the NFL Network’s booth for Thurdsay-night and Saturday-night games. It’s an annoying addition, not just because Theismann is terrible, but because the Bob Papa/Matt Millen team ended up being pretty good last year. Millen actually has insight about what’s happening on the field, while Theismann doesn’t seem to see inside the game. His performance in an NBC wild-card playoff game last year was awful, yet it somehow got him another gig. If NFL Network wanted a third man in the booth, they had much better options on their roster – Marshall Faulk, Steve Mariucci, Warren Sapp, Tom Waddle, just to name a few. This move makes no sense, and we can only hope it’s short-lived.

4 – Antonio Pierce, ESPN – After a nine-year career with the Redskins and Giants that included a Super Bowl win and a Pro Bowl bid, Pierce hung up his cleats to join ESPN’s roster of analysts. He’ll appear on NFL Live, SportsCenter, and ESPNEWS and also contribute to ESPN’s web and radio platforms in New York. It’ll be hard for Pierce to establish a role nationally on ESPN’s crowded roster, but his years under the New York media spotlight have polished him to the point that he’ll look good on camera. As always, having a player who’s competed against most guys he’s analyzing is also a plus – if the player can be honest. Only time will tell if Pierce clears that hurdle, but if he does he could have a bright future in the business.

3 - Brad Nessler and Trent Dilfer, Monday Night Football – For the fourth straight year, ESPN will open its Monday Night Football schedule with a doubleheader. For the past three years, the late game has been called by Mike Greenberg and Mike Golic, along with either Mike Ditka or Steve Young. But Greenberg isn’t the smoothest play-by-play guy, and the radio duo’s penchant for going topical irritated fans. So this year, ESPN will go to veteran play-by-play man Brad Nessler, who spends most of the fall on college football, for the game. He’ll pair with Trent Dilfer, an NFL Live analyst who has shown a penchant for incisive, insightful, and strong commentary. We’re excited to see Dilfer in the role, because we admire his talents and wish he had an even more high-profile role. This is his chance to show he can be a top-flight game analyst.

2 – Spero Dedes, CBS – Dedes has moved into CBS’s play-by-play roster for the NFL this year, working on a No. 6 team. Dedes also worked the NCAA Tournament for CBS, and he’s best known as a Lakers announcer. In recent years, he has hosted NFL Network’s Gameday Morning, but Rich Eisen moves from postgame to take over those pregame duties.

1 – Jay Glazer and Daryl Johnston, NFL Network – Glazer and Johnston, both Fox staples, are adding NFL Total Access duties to their repretoire. Both will be studio analysts for the NFL Network show. We include them here just for the sake of the record.

1 Comment

Filed under Football Relativity, NFL announcers

Research project: QB contemporaries of Favre

With the retirement of Brett Favre, we have the end of an era. Favre, of course, owns most of the most important quarterbacking records — TD passes, yards passing, completions, attempts, interceptions, and victories as a starter, just to name the big ones. But how does he rate against the quarterbacks of his era? We did a research project and used the information to do a football relativity comparison of quarterbacks in the Brett Favre era.

A couple of descriptions: The era we’re talking about is the current era. We define this era as beginning with the end of the Cowboys dynasty (which means with the 1996 season). Also, we’re only including quarterbacks with 20,000 passing yards. Of course, that leaves out some important current quarterbacks (listed at the bottom of this post), but we had to make a cutoff somewhere.  We’ve also excluded some quarterbacks who played a bit in this era of ’96-’08 but weren’t necessarily in this era. (Those guys are also listed at the bottom of this post.) A couple of Hall of Fame quarterbacks, Steve Young and John Elway, would have been left out of this relativity comparison but won’t be because they had significant accomplishments in this era.

We’re using a 10-point scale, with 10 being the best quarterback of the era and 1 being a quarterback who hit the yardage qualifier but won’t really be remembered.

10- Tom Brady (26k passing yards), Peyton Manning (45k passing yards), Troy Aikman (32k passing yards), Steve Young (33k passing yards), John Elway (51k passing yards). Brady and Manning are the standard bearers since 2000, while Aikman, Young, and Elway all finished their careers with several years in this era.
In the era:
Brady: 3 Super Bowl wins, 1 MVP, 1 passer rating crown, 2 TD passes crowns, 2 passing yards crowns.
Manning: 1 Super Bowl win, 3 MVPs, 3 passer rating crowns, 3 TD passes crowns, 2 passing yards crowns.
Elway: 2 Super Bowl wins.
Young: 2 passer rating crowns, 1 TD passes crown.

9- Kurt Warner (28k passing yards), Brett Favre (65k passing yards). These guys are just a notch below the first group because of consistency. Favre was dynamic in the 1990s, but for most of the 2000s he was a step behind Brady and Manning. Warner has several unbelievable years, but also has a black hole in his career.
In the era:
Favre: 1 Super Bowl win, 2 MVPs, 3 TD passes crowns, 1 passing yards crown.
Warner: 1 Super Bowl win, 2 MVPs, 2 passer rating crowns, 2 TD passes crowns, 1 passing yards crown.

 8- Donovan McNabb  (29k passing yards), Drew Brees (26k passing yards), Steve McNair (31k passing yards) This is a pretty significant drop from the level before, because the remaining Super Bowl champions weren’t long-term impact guys, and the main statistical stars didn’t win big. McNabb has been a first-tier starter for 10 years now, and Brees is the new Dan Fouts — a big-time stat compiler who hasn’t won big-time in the postseason. McNair led several top teams even though he was never a huge stat guy.
In the era:
Brees: 1 TD passes crown, 2 passing yards crowns, 1 offensive player of the year award.
McNair: 1 MVP, 1 passer rating crown.

 7- Randall Cunningham (29k passing yards), Drew Bledsoe (44k passing yards), Rich Gannon (28k passing yards), Daunte Culpepper (23k passing yards). All of these guys had years when they were among the best in the league, but they didn’t sustain that excellence that long. Still, at their best they were elite quarterbacks.
In the era:
Cunningham: 1 passer rating crown.
Culpepper: 1 TD passes crown, 1 passing yards crown.
Gannon: 1 MVP, 1 passing yards crown.

6- Mark Brunell (31k passing yards), Vinny Testaverde (46k passing yards), Kerry Collins (37k passing yards), Brad Johnson (29k passing yards). Testaverde’s career stats land him here, and in this era he played for some quality Jets teams. Collins led good teams in Carolina, New York, and Tennessee. Johnson put up big numbers in Minnesota and then won a title in Tampa Bay. Brunell was a top-8 quarterback in Jacksonville for several years.
In the era:
Brunell: 1 passing yards crown.
Johnson: 1 Super Bown win.

5- Trent Dilfer (20k passing yards), Trent Green (28k passing yards), Jeff Garcia (25k passing yards), Matt Hasselbeck (23k passing yards).  The fact that Dilfer won a Super Bowl means he can’t go lower than this. Imagine what his career standing would be if the Ravens had given him a chance to stay and he had won a second title. Green was a solid starter for several years in Kansas City; Hasselbeck was a consistent winner with good Seahawks teams; and Garcia was a good starter in San Francisco and Tampa Bay, along with a good run as a backup in Philadelphia.
In the era:
Dilfer: 1 Super Bowl win

4- Chris Chandler (28k passing yards), Jake Plummer (29k passing yards). Chandler led a Falcons Super Bowl trip and was a solid starter for several years. Plummer led both the Broncos and the Cardinals to the playoffs.

3- Steve Beuerlein (24k passing yards), Jeff George (27k passing yards), Jeff Blake (21k passing yards), Marc Bulger (21k passing yards). Beuerlein had a few huge years in Carolina but was otherwise a backup. Bulger and Blake both had brief stops as triggermen in very dangerous offenses. George put up some big numbers but wasn’t a guy you could construct a franchise around.
In the era:
Beuerlein: 1 passing yards crown.
George: 1 passing yards crown.

2- Jon Kitna (27k passing yards), Jim Harbaugh (26k passing yards), Neil O’Donnell (21k passing yards). O’Donnell and Harbaugh played into this era but had their best runs before it. Kitna never was respected as a starter, but he produced numbers in Seattle, Cincinnati, and Detroit.

1- Gus Frerotte (21k passing yards), Aaron Brooks (20k passing yards). Brooks had a few good years in New Orleans, but he flamed out incredibly quickly. Frerotte was mostly a backup.

Active quarterbacks who are not included because they have not yet thrown for 20,000 yards: Brian Griese, Jake Delhomme, Chad Pennington, Carson Palmer, Ben Roethlisberger, Eli Manning, David Carr, Philip Rivers, Tony Romo.

Quarterbacks whose careers ended in this era and who had 20,000+ passing yards, but who are not included in this poll because the most significant parts of their careers happened before this era began: Dan Marino, Warren Moon, Dave Kreig, Boomer Esiason, Jim Kelly, Jim Everett, Steve DeBerg, Bernie Kosar, Bobby Hebert.

2 Comments

Filed under Football Relativity, research project