Category Archives: Super Bowl

Pick ‘em – Super Bowl 46

After a mediocre season of NFL picks and a 5-5 playoff run, it’s time for our Super Bowl 46 pick. Let’s break down the game as we do.

Tom Brady will be the key to a Patriots win in Super Bowl 46, via cbsboston.com

The question that has stayed at the forefront of our minds over the past two weeks is which team is best at something. While many of the matchups seem to favor the Giants, we believe the Patriots will throw the ball better than the Giants do anything. So the question is whether the Pats’ success in the passing game – which we believe will happen, at least to some degree – will overcome its shortcomings elsewhere.

So while Jason Pierre-Paul, Justin Tuck and company may harass Brady, and while Eli Manning to Victor Cruz may find room in the Patriots secondary, the key to the game will be Brady finding Wes Welker and his two tight ends. The big plays in the Patriots passing game will mean more than the sacks from Big Blue or the Giants’ offense.

That will lead to a Patriots win. That’s not the popular pick – the bets in Vegas are leaning toward the Giants, and the majority of analysts we hear lean toward the Giants as well. But we’re going to go with the Patriots to win and cover the three-point spread.

New England 28, New York Giants 20

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Cruz a key to the Giants Super Bowl run

For National Football Authority, we break down the key role that wide receiver Victor Cruz played in the Giants’ run to Super Bowl 46. How did Cruz rise to such an important role against the 49ers? What role will he play against the Patriots? Click here to find out.

Giants WR Victor Cruz starred against the 49ers, via Fox News Latino

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Super Bowl 45 thoughts

Aaron Rodgers and Clay Matthews celebrate, via foxsports.com

Here are thoughts breaking down the Packers’ 31-25 victory over the Steelers in Super Bowl 45.

*Aaron Rodgers wasn’t the surgeon he had been at other points in the playoffs (most notably against the Falcons), but he had a terrific game with 304 passing yards and three touchdowns. His 24-of-39 performance would have been even better without at least 5 drops by Packers wideouts, which says even more about how Rodgers played. Rodgers made the leap this year, and the playoffs affirmed that he’s among the league’s best this year.
*Ben Roethlisberger, on the other hand, threw two interceptions that his team couldn’t overcome. The first pick, which Nick Collins returned to a touchdown, wasn’t entirely Big Ben’s fault, since he couldn’t get anything on the throw due to pressure from Howard Green. But the second pick was into double coverage. Both picks resulted in Green Bay TDs, so it’s fair to say that Ben’s failings were part of the reason the Steelers lost.
*Not to toot our own horn, but our pre-game pick ‘em post was eerily accurate. The running game wasn’t really a factor on either side of the ball, although both James Starks (11 for 52) and Rashard Mendenhall (14 for 63) ran OK. Mendenhall’s fumble, however, was another key mistake. But the crucial matchup of the game was the fact that the Steelers couldn’t stop the Packers’ four-WR set. Rodgers consistently found Jordy Nelson (nine catches, 140 yards, TD, plus three drops), and Greg Jennings (4-64-2) made a few huge plays, and the formation kept Troy Polamalu in coverage, which limited his impact. On the other side, the Steelers got some big plays from Mike Wallace (9-89-1), but the Packers were able to clamp down on the Steelers, especially early. Only after Charles Woodson suffered a broken collarbone and Sam Shields had to leave for a while with an injury did the Steelers really gash the Pack through the air.
*The defenses didn’t cause a ton of havoc on either side. The Steelers got decent pressure on Rodgers, and more importantly kept him inside the pocket, but they got just three sacks. (Lamarr Woodley did continue his streak of having a sack in every postseason game he’s played.) The Packers had just one sack from Frank Zombo, but they did knock down a few passes on the line. Clay Matthews, the chief mischief-maker, spent as much time spying on Roethlisberger as actually blitzing, which is part of the reason why Ben had just one run for a first down. (Props to Troy Aikman, by the way, for pointing out the Matthews spy strategy early on.) But the Packers’ defensive line didn’t make an impact aside from Green’s big play.
*Mike Lombardi of the NFL network always refers to missed field goals as turnovers, and Shaun Suisham’s shanked 52-yarder in the third quarter was an unforced turnover. Suisham has never been a consistent kicker, so the idea of having him try a 50-plus field goal in a key spot was wrong-headed by Mike Tomlin. It cost the Steelers at least 22 yards (and maybe 30-35 yards) of field position, and also let the Packers out from under the thumb at a time when they were really struggling. It didn’t turn the game, but it was a major miscalculation.
*The Packers had a ton of drops. Nelson had three, including two that would have been for huge gains. James Jones dropped a potential touchdown – he’s had a ton of big drops in the postseason – and showed why, despite his speed and potential, he’s a No. 3 receiver and a starter. Still, Jones had five catches for 50 yards and made an impact after Donald Driver left the game with a foot injury.
*Unsung heroes: Antwaan Randle El had a huge 37-yard catch, another first-down catch, and a run for a two-point conversion for the Steelers, which was huge after rookie Emmanuel Sanders had to leave the game with a foot injury. Bush of the Packers was forced into more coverage responsibility after Woodson’s injury, and he had a big hit on Roethlisberger and added an interception early on without giving up a ton of big plays. Desmond Bishop of the Packers was all over the field, finishing with eight tackles and three tackles for loss, along with a fumble recovery. He was far more of a factor than A.J. Hawk, and given the fact that he started the year behind Nick Barnett, Bishop’s development was a huge factor. And C Doug Legursky, who replaced Maurkice Pouncey at center for the Steelers, held up just fine. He never got bowled over in pass protection, and the Steelers actually got him out in space to block a few times too (including the first two plays of the game).
*Thanks for reading all season. We more than doubled last year’s readership, and we’re thankful. But just because the season’s over, don’t stop visiting. We’ll be up and at it for the rest of the week, breaking down the Hall of Fame election, tracking franchise player tags, and commenting on the Titans’ coaching hire, among other things. For the latest, check back at www.footballrelativity.com or follow on Twitter for post updates and more discussions.

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Pick ‘em – Super Bowl 45

Ben Roethlisberger vs. Clay Matthews in 2009

It’s finally time for us to make our Super Bowl pick. We’ve already previewed who we think the playmakers will be and played out the storylines. So let’s engage in some preja vu and tell you not only who will win but how the game will be won.

*Neither team will be able to run the ball all that well with their running backs. We see Rashard Mendenhall fighting for 55 yards or so on like 17 carries, and we suspect Aaron Rodgers may outrush any Packers back – James Starks, Brandon Jackson, John Kuhn, and company. The running game is not going to be what decides the game.
*A huge question is whether either offensive line can effectively block their opponents. The Packers’ line isn’t great, and rookie right tackle Bryan Bulaga has given up his fair share of sacks this season. So we believe James Harrison and Lamarr Woodley will get a few hits in on Rodgers. But we have the same doubts that the Steelers can block Clay Matthews coming off the corner as well as B.J. Raji and Cullen Jenkins inside. The Maurkice Pouncey injury really hurts the Steelers here, because the Pack’s playmaking interior players will be troublesome throughout the game. Still, though, since both teams can create pressure, the big plays out of the pass rushes should basically even out.
*So where do we find a big advantage? It’s in coverage. The Packers have three terrific cornerbacks in Charles Woodson, Tramon Williams, and Sam Shields, and Shields’ emergence will be a key in keeping Mike Wallace from breaking free deep in the secondary. We believe the Packers can keep Ben Roethlisberger and company from throwing the ball all over the place. But we don’t have the same confidence about the Steelers. Troy Polamalu is a great player, but he’s better freelancing than in coverage, and the Packers can force Polamalu into coverage by using a four-wide receiver set. Ike Taylor can be trouble blitzing off the corner, but he’s not an elite cover corner either. The same is true from Bryant McFadden. We just see Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, James Jones, and Jordy Nelson breaking free more than once. If the Packers can keep the Steelers blocked for the most part, or if Rodgers can keep the chains moving with his legs when pressured, then Green Bay will eventually beat the Steelers through the air. And that’s where the game will be won.

So our pick is Green Bay 28, Pittsburgh 24

Conference championships: 2-0 both straight up and against the spread
Playoffs: 5-5 both straight up and against the spread

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FR: Super Bowl 45 Playmakers

Green Bay Packers starting quarterback Aaron R...

Aaron Rodgers. Image via Wikipedia

Each year, as we begin to preview the Super Bowl, we try to anticipate which players will become the big-play makers of the big game. (You can see last year’s post here, and the Super Bowl 43 edition here.) As always, we’re on a 10-point scale where 10 points is epic and 1 point is someone who is a possible playmaker in a remote situation. We’ve left out offensive linemen, because it’s so hard to distinguish them individually because they are meant to function as a unit.

If you think we missed someone, add a comment and where you think that Packer or Steeler fits in.

10 – QB Aaron Rodgers, Packers - This is Rodgers’ chance at the spotlight, and we believe he’s up to the challenge. Given the state of the Packers’ running game, the Packers’ chances rest on their quarterback, which means that he’s the man on the spot. He can make big plays with both his arm and his legs, and he has done just that in his playoff drive this season. Does he have one more game left?

9 – QB Ben Roethlisberger and WR Mike Wallace, Steelers – Big Ben has two Super Bowl rings, but no MVP trophies, which is a little odd for a quarterback. You can’t say he’s played poorly, because he led a game-winning drive two years ago and hit Santonio Holmes for the winning TD. But Roethlisberger has set up Holmes and Hines Ward for Super Bowl MVP honors. So while Big Ben will play a huge role, the pattern indicates that if the Steelers win, it will be a receiver who gets the award. Our money is on Wallace, who has perhaps the best deep speed in the game. Wallace has been the focus of defenses in the playoffs thus far, but the Packers let Johnny Knox and Devin Hester break free deep in the NFC championship game, and if they can do it, Wallace can too. If the Steelers win, it’ll be correlated to a big game from Wallace.

8 – OLBs James Harrison and Lamarr Woodley, Steelers – Harrison made a huge play in the last Super Bowl with an epic 100-yard interception return for a touchdown. And Harrison remains a huge force getting to the quarterback. But Woodley, who has compiled a sack in each and every postseason game in his career, will get to Rodgers at least once, and so he’s just as high on the list as Harrison. These two outside ‘backers will need to force at least one turnover for the Steelers to win.

7 – CB Charles Woodson, Packers - Really, we could have said pick a Packer corner, because both Tramon Williams and Sam Shields have been game MVPs for the Pack in the playoffs this year. But Woodson is a big-time player who can emerge on the biggest stage, and as one of the few Packers with Super Bowl experience, he won’t be afraid of the stage.

6 – RB Rashard Mendenhall, Steelers – Mendenhall may have had the best game of his career against the Jets in the AFC championship game, and if he plays that way again, he can carry the Steelers to a win. Running against the Packers will be tough, but Mendenhall showed against the Jets that he might just be up to the challenge.

5 – OLB Clay Matthews, Packers - Matthews is the Packers’ star on defense, but after a ridiculous start to the season his playmaking has been a bit more sporadic this season. The matchup seems to favor Matthews against subpar Steelers tackles, but if the Steelers gear up their protection to stop Matthews, someone else will need to step up and pressure Big Ben. And even if Matthews can get to Roethlisberger, can he bring him down? Roethlisberger is basically as big as Matthews, and he’s perhaps the league’s toughest QB to bring down.

4 – WR Greg Jennings, Packers – Jennings may be the most overlooked No. 1 receiver in the league, but he certainly deserves the accolade. He’s good enough to carry the team, but he has so much help at receiver that defenses can’t focus on him. Jennings could have a breakout game a la Larry Fitzgerald two years ago that turns him from very good player to national star.

4 (con’t) – S Troy Polamalu, Steelers – Polamalu is one of the most popular and well-known Steelers, and he claimed defensive player of the year honors (over Matthews) this week. But his play of late hasn’t been dominant, and the fact that the Packers can spread the field with four receivers could force Polamalu into coverage instead of letting him freelance as he usually does. That will limit Polamalu’s impact in this game.

3 – TE Heath Miller, Steelers - Miller is a supersolid tight end who can help out blocking Matthews and company but also serve as a possession receiver or even a threat to get down the seam for a big play. The Packers have struggled against tight ends this year, and that could set Miller up for success on Sunday.

2 – WR Jordy Nelson, Packers – Nelson is the Packers’ fourth receiver, but he has been a popular target for Rodgers in the postseason, and we think he’s behind only Jennings in terms of the Packer wideouts we see making big plays this weekend. Of course, Rodgers will look for vet Donald Driver and the inconsistent but talented James Jones as well, but we can see Nelson piling up 70-80 yards or more on multiple receptions.

2 (con’t) – DLs B.J. Raji and Cullen Jenkins, Packers – The Packers’ defensive line doesn’t get a ton of publicity – or at least it didn’t until Raji broke free with an interception return for a touchdown against the Bears. But while Raji has been a dominator inside, Jenkins stepped up in the playoffs, and he’s just as likely to make the big play as Raji against the Steelers.

1 – ILBs Desmond Bishop, Packers, and Lawrence Timmons, Steelers - Bishop and Timmons have both had terrific seasons for their respective teams, but they don’t make the flashy plays that their defensive teammates do. But both guys are tackling machines, and if they can strip the ball on a tackle or pick up a fumble and return it for a score, they could find themselves joining unlikely Super Bowl MVPs like Larry Brown and Dexter Jackson.

1 (con’t) – DE Ziggy Hood, Steelers – We’ve been pounding the drum on how well Hood has been playing throughout the postseason, and if he does that again he’ll have a shot at raising his profile and making a splash on the biggest stage. In fact, we believe it’s more likely that Hood will make a big play than his D-linemates Casey Hampton or Brett Keisel doing so.

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FR: Super Bowl 45 Storylines

Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisbe...

Ben Roethlisberger (left) will be on the spot at Media Day. Image via Wikipedia

Each year, the buildup to the Super Bowl is full of storylines. Some are hype, some are funny, some are ridiculous, and some actually mean something. So on the eve of the spectacle known as Media Day, we’re going to do what we do each year and break down the storylines using our Football Relativity comparison. The 10 level marks the storylines that you’ll hear the most; the 1 level is the storyline that will barely make a ripple.

If you have ideas we overlooked, suggest them via comments and we’ll add them to the comparison.

10 – Big Ben’s redemption - This story is old, because it’s been a full season since Ben Roethlisberger’s legal questions in Georgia, and several months since his league-mandated suspension. But Roethlisberger will be peppered with questions about his past and his future throughout the week. Armchair psychologists will try to determine if he has changed, if he has learned his lesson, whether women have forgiven him, and a multitude of other questions. With Big Ben giving pat answers to such questions all seasons, we can’t expect any revelations or public soul-searching, but the questions will undoubtedly be there.

9 – Aaron Rodgers’ place among the elite QBs today - Rodgers can break the glass ceiling of NFL quarterbacks if he wins this Super Bowl, much like Drew Brees did last year. Before New Orleans’ Super Bowl win, Brees was fighting for inclusion with Tom Brady and Peyton Manning among the league’s best QBs. Now Brees has turned the duo into a threesome. If Rodgers leads the Pack to a win Sunday, he’ll make it a quartet. He already has the regular-season numbers, but a Super Bowl win would vault him over Philip Rivers, Matt Ryan, and the other good quarterbacks into the land of the great – at least in terms of national perception. This storyline will be a talking-head go-to this week.

8 – Big Ben’s place among the elite QBs all-time - While Rodgers is out to solidify his ranking among the quarterbacks of today, Big Ben has history at stake. If he gets another Super Bowl win, he’ll join the Troy Aikman/Brady class with three rings, trailing just Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw on the all-time list. The list of QBs with two rings includes many greats – John Elway, Bart Starr, Roger Staubach, Bob Griese – but also Jim Plunkett, a good but not great. Roethlisberger can cement his lasting legacy (and strengthen his Hall of Fame case) by moving from the two-ring to the three-ring club.

7 - Packers IR controversy – Maybe it was the lull of the bye week, but the story about how the Packers were treating their 16 players on injured reserve blew up last week and will linger into media day. A quick review: First, the Packers announced that their IR players wouldn’t arrive in Texas until Thursday, which would leave them out of the team photo that happens Tuesday. Nick Barnett and JerMichael Finley took to Twitter to protest being left out, and the Packers rescheduled the photo until Friday. Then Rodgers publicly criticized players who were doing their rehab away from Green Bay, even though that’s a fairly typical decision for players. Again, Barnett and Finley (among others) took offense. The Packers will claim the waters have been smoothed over, but questions will persist all week and especially when injured players are available to the media later in the week.

6 – Looming lockout - Because both commissioner Roger Goodell and NFL Players Association leader DeMaurice Smith will hold press conferences this week, the looming lockout will be front-page news. There will be plenty of posturing, and both sides will try to win the battle of public perception. Who knows who will win; but we do know for sure that headlines will be forthcoming.

5 - Hines Ward retirement - Some stories have percolated suggesting that Ward, the long-time Steelers receiver and Super Bowl 40 MVP, might retire were the Steelers to win the Super Bowl. But Ward has said his third ring won’t be enough to transition him out of the game. Still, reports are out there enough that Ward will have to declare he’s coming back more than once to the media onslaught this week.

4 - Steelers injuries – Both teams have injuries, but the Steelers’ are higher profile. Reports say that Pro Bowl rookie center Maurkice Pouncey is out, although the team hasn’t officially ruled him out. Star defensive end Aaron Smith faced an early-week MRI that will determine whether he’s able to play. Former first-round pick Ziggy Hood has played quite well in Smith’s stead, which could allow the Steelers to bring Smith back in a limited role. But Pouncey’s replacement, Doug Legursky, will be a pretty significant drop-off from Pouncey’s level of play. That makes this an on-field issue worth talking about this week.

3 – Clay Matthews’ stardom – Aside from Rodgers, the Packer with the most to gain from a marketing standpoint this week is Matthews, the star outside linebacker and third-generation NFL player. Matthews has a distinctive look and two fine pro seasons, and that will make him a popular target of questions, especially by the non-traditional media. It’ll be interesting to see if Matthews can become a breakout star this week.

2 – none

1 – Packers injuries - While the Packers would like to have either OLB Frank Zombo or Erik Walden available Sunday to start across from Clay Matthews, this isn’t a make-or-break proposition for the Packers. However, it is an excuse for us to declare once again that Zombo is the best surname in the NFL. It’s a name fit for an X-Man or a wrestler, and it’s his real last name. We want him to be a star just so we can hear ZOMBO more often.

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Super Bowl 44 thoughts

Here are thoughts on the Saints’ 31-17 victory over the Colts in Super Bowl 44.

*Sean Payton pitched a perfect game for the Saints in the coaching department. A lot of times, we pound on coaches for bad game-management decisions, but Payton was spot on in this game. His decision to go for it on fourth-and-goal in the second quarter didn’t pay off with a touchdown, but the Saints still got a field goal before the half based on field position, and more importantly they kept Peyton Manning from mounting a two-minute drill drive. Then the onside kick to start off the second half obviously was a huge gamble that paid off by giving the Saints their first lead. Payton also correctly challenged on the two-point conversion in the fourth quarter. That’s a strong performance from a coach who wasn’t afraid to lose and instead played to win.
*Jim Caldwell, meanwhile, made the game’s crucial mistake by attempting a 51-yard field goal in the fourth quarter. When you think of trying a 51-yarder with a 42-year-old kicker, it just sounds like a bad idea, and even though Matt Stover had hit 16 straight postseason kicks, he barely got the kick there. It seemed like there was a 30 percent chance, tops, of that kick making it. An incomplete pass would have saved the Colts seven yards, and a punt could have buried the Saints deep and perhaps taken the aggressiveness out of Payton and Drew Brees. In a game that didn’t have a turnover or a play longer than 27 yards until Tracy Porter’s late interception return, that missed field goal was a huge turnaround.
*Obviously, Drew Brees had an epic performance in the game, completing 18-of-19 passes at one point and finishing 32-of-39 for 288 yards. In a game without big plays, accuracy is what kept drives moving, and Brees was just a little better than Peyton Manning in this game. That’s not to say Manning was bad, because he was at least good. But Brees put together a great performance.
*Again, in a game where there was only one turnover and just 64 penalty yards combined, mistakes that are usually smaller like dropped passes played a much bigger role. Marques Colston’s drop in the first quarter slowed the Saints down, while Pierre Garcon’s drop in the second quarter seemed to stymie the Colts’ momentum for a whole quarter. Garcon has a ton of talent, and he had a productive game with 5 catches for 66 yards and a touchdown. But the young receiver had two key mistakes in that drop and then the fourth-quarter offensive pass interference that really hurt his team. Those mistakes loomed large in this one.
*Before the game, I tweeted that I saw a game with more running and more of a grind-it-out affair. And while my Pierre Thomas as MVP prediction didn’t come through, Thomas was important with 85 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown. For the Saints, the grind-it-out came as they dumped the ball off time after time instead of taking bigger shots deep. For the Colts, they relied on Joseph Addai, who had a big game with 135 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown. Addai was the Colts’ best offensive player in the game.
*Dwight Freeney had the game’s only sack, and while he didn’t make a huge impact it was good to see that injury didn’t keep him from playing or limit him to the point that he’ll regret how he could have played. But the Colts’ best defensive player was Gary Brackett, who had 12 solo tackles and the key fourth-and-goal stop in the second quarter.
*Thomas Morstead was the crazy kicker of the Super Bowl with his terrific surprise onside kick, but Garrett Hartley deserves props for becoming the first kicker in Super Bowl history to make three field goals of 40 yards or more in a Super Bowl. It’s interesting to consider how both of these teams had kicking decisions to make late in the season. The Saints went with the young Hartley over veteran John Carney, and that paid off in both the NFC championship game and the Super Bowl. The Colts went with Stover over Adam Vinatieri, and Stover missed (in a tough spot).

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Pick ‘em – Super Bowl 44

We’ve had a horrible year of picks, but in the conference championship games we actually seemed to know what was going on, picking the Colts to win and cover and picking the Saints to win 31-26 thanks in part to a late Brett Favre interception. Of course, that still left us just 1-1 vs. the spread, but it made us feel better going into our Super Bowl 44 pick.

New Orleans vs. Indianapolis – It’s been fascinating to watch the way public sentiment has gone in this matchup. The game opened with a 3.5-point Indy advantage, but that immediately spiked to the 5.5-point range. The spread has hovered there, but in the last couple of days it seems like many analysts and experts are trying to talk themselves into the Saints. Dwight Freeney’s ankle injury has a lot to do with that, but there’s also the underdog attraction at work here. Well, we’re not going for it, because we see the Colts claiming their second Super Bowl title in four years. Peyton Manning is playing quarterback at a level not seen since Joe Montana’s uberefficient glory days, and even if the Saints blitz him, he’ll pick them apart. He’s already faced two playoff teams in the Ravens and Jets that are better blitzers than the Saints, and Manning thrived in both of those games. And while Drew Brees will move the ball for the Saints, we expect the Saints’ offense to sputter just a bit more than the Colts. Yes, Freeney’s injury matters, but the Colts have other pass rushers (notably Robert Mathis) as well as a young crew of corners that is better than what they’ve had in recent years. The Saints will need to turn the Colts over to win, but we see Indy as the team more likely to win the turnover battle. The Colts won 30-17 last week, and their previous Super Bowl victory was a 29-17 decision. We think this game ends up in that area again, as the Colts become the first favorite to cover since they did so vs. Chicago. We’ll project Indianapolis 28, New Orleans 17.

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FR: Super Bowl 44 potential playmakers

As we did last year, we’re going to play relativity with Super Bowl 44′s best playmakers. After pegging Santonio Holmes as the Steelers’ top option last year, we want to repeat our success. As always, we’re on a 10-point scale where 10 points is epic and 1 point is someone who is a possible playmaker in a remote situation. We’ve left out offensive linemen, because it’s so hard to distinguish them individually because they are meant to function as a unit.

10 – QB Peyton Manning, Colts, and QB Drew Brees, Saints – In somewhat of a no-brainer, we’ll put both Manning and Brees as the playmakers most likely to make an impact on Super Sunday. In a game that figures to be high-scoring, both quarterbacks will need to play at a high level in order for their teams to keep up in what figures to be a track meet. And the fact that both quarterbacks are so freakin’ good makes the chances of that happening quite high. Your Super Bowl MVP will almost certainly come off of this level of the comparison.

9 – WR Reggie Wayne, Colts and S Darren Sharper, Saints – Wayne hasn’t had a huge playoff season, but against the Saints’ cornerbacks he should have much more of an opportunity to break free. The stage is set for Wayne to have a big game and establish himself once and for all and take the leap from Pro Bowler to one of the NFL’ s elite receivers, as Larry Fitzgerald and Hines Ward have done in recent Super Bowls. Sharper, meanwhile, is at the crux of the Saints’ attempt to force turnovers. He’s been one of New Orleans’ biggest ballhawks, and if the Saints are going to take the ball away from the potent and reliable Colts offense, Sharper is the most likely candidate to do so.

8 – DE Robert Mathis, Colts, and MLB Jonathan Vilma, Saints – With Dwight Freeney hurting, Mathis becomes the key guy in Indy’s pressure game. If Mathis can provide enough of a pass rush to at least force a double-team, then he enables other players to generate pressure and also keeps an extra receiver out of pass patterns. If that doesn’t happen, Brees will be shooting fish in a barrel. Vilma is the centerpiece of the Saints’ defense, and he’ll need to match Manning audible-for-audible. Vilma had a key audible against the Vikings that led to a turnover, and if he can make that kind of call in this game, he will put the Saints in the running.

7 – TE Dallas Clark, Colts and RB Pierre Thomas, Saints – Clark is option 1A for the Colts, and he delivers in that role, making catches down the seam and even making some long plays to spark the offense. He’s going to test Saints SS Roman Harper in coverage. On the other side of the ball, Thomas may be the Saints’ somewhat secret weapon. He’s a between-the-tackles runner capable of bleeding the clock and thus keeping Manning off the field. If Thomas can do that against a Colts defense that is far from a Brickyard wall, the Saints will be in far better position to win.

6 – WR Marques Colston, Saints and FS Antonie Bethea, Colts – Colston is the Saints’ most consistent receiving threat, although he’s not the big-play guy that Robert Meachem or Devery Henderson are. Still, Colston will be the guy most frequently on the receiving end of chains-moving plays from Brees. Bethea is a play-making safety who’s probably the Colt most likely to pick Brees off. Bethea emerged as a Pro Bowl player this year, and with Bob Sanders missing the season Bethea has made the biggest impact in Indy’s back end.

5 – WR Austin Collie, Colts and DE Raheem Brock, Colts – Our hunch is that Collie will be more of a factor than fellow breakout receiver Pierre Garcon in this game because Reggie Wayne is more set up for success. Collie is a fine slot receiver who has the ability to get deep on occasion. Brock is the Colts’ do-everything defensive lineman who can play across the line but will likely have to focus on the right end in this game to spell Dwight Freeney. If Brock can provide solid play as usual, that’s good, but making an impact play or two would be a monstrous plus for the Colts.

4 – WR Pierre Garcon, Colts and WR Robert Meachem, Saints – We get the feeling that Garcon’s in line for just 2 or 3 catches in this game, but one of them could easily be a 30-yarder that makes a splash. That has been what Meachem has done all season for the Saints – providing big plays more often than not in games. The Saints will need Meachem to do just that in this one if they are to keep up with the Colts’ offense.

3 – DE Dwight Freeney, Colts and WR Devery Henderson, Saints – Our hunch is that Freeney will play despite his aching ankle, but in a limited amount of plays. But if he can generate a pass-rush presence in 10-15 plays, he can still help the Colts. Still, the impact of this truly great player will be unfortunately muted in the biggest game of the year. Henderson is a deep threat who has more speed than Colston or Meachem but less consistency. Still, he will find himself open deep at least once in this game. The question is whether Brees will get the ball there and whether Henderson will complete the catch.

2 – DE Will Smith, Saints and RB Joseph Addai, Colts – Smith is the Saints’ best pass rusher, and he’s most likely not only to get a hit on Manning but also to force a backfield fumble like he did against Percy Harvin in the NFC title game. We don’t expect Addai to play a huge role in this game, but as the Colts’ reliable veteran running back he’ll have a role in blitz pickup and as an outlet receiver.

1 – PK Matt Stover, Colts and RB Reggie Bush, Saints – While New Orleans’ Garrett Hartley hit the big field goal in the NFC title game, but we figure that Stover, a 20-year veteran who is playing for a franchise other than the Ravens/Browns for the first time, is more likely to hit a fourth-quarter pressure kick in this one. And we include Bush here not because we expect him to have a big role but so that you know we haven’t forgotten about him. He’s more likely to make a mark via punt return than on offense in this one, from what we foresee.

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FR: Super Bowl 44 storylines

As part of our coverage of Super Bowl 44, we thought we’d spend some time analyzing the most prevalent storylines we’ll hear about during the Super Bowl hype. These storylines are compared not on their validity or even their relevance but simply on how often we’ll hear them, with the 10 level being the most often repeated storylines and the 1 level being storylines we won’t hear (but perhaps should). The blurb about each storyline will analyze what impact (if any) the storyline will have on the actual game.

And a note – for more info on the game and thoughts that creep into our heads, check out our Twitter feed on the right of this page or by following. We’ll try to have fun there.

10 – Recovery of New Orleans – This is the biggest storyline that we’ll hear about when it comes to the Saints this week. We’ll hear about Hurricane Katrina, the ninth ward, the recovery of perhaps the most unique American city, and how Drew Brees’ decision to live there is a spark. This a great story, no doubt, and the fact that the Saints are playing for something a little bigger than themselves does matter on the field, at least a little. But this won’t be the deciding factor on the field come game day.

9 – Dwight Freeney’s health – This story got a lot bigger over the weekend when ESPN reported that Freeney has a torn ligament in his ankle that could sideline him for the Super Bowl. We guess that Freeney will play, but of all the pregame stories this is the one with the potential to have the greatest on-field impact.

8 – none

7 – Who’s Archie cheering for? - The storyline that New Orleans will focus on when it’s not on a sociological kick is the allegiance of the all-time greatest Saint, Archie Manning. Of course, Archie’s son Peyton is going for his second Super Bowl ring. Archie has already decided that he’s with Peyton all the way, but that doesn’t mean that Archie, Peyton, and everyone else won’t have to talk about this throughout the media day festivities. Then we’ll all forget about it and actually watch the game, hoping that CBS doesn’t shove shots of Archie down our throats (like they shoved shots of the President down our throats during Saturday’s Duke/Georgetown hoops game).

6 – Peyton Manning as the GOAT – Now that he’s won a record four MVP awards, Peyton can put himself in the discussion as the Greatest of All Time, or GOAT as so many have called it. With a second Super Bowl ring, Peyton can enter the discussion with John Elway and Joe Montana, whom we would rate as the top two quarterbacks since 1980. But the talking heads who must fill airtime on First Take will Skip perspective (pun intended) and go ahead and declare Peyton the best of all time. Peyton cares about his legacy, and it drives him, but his concern during the game will be a second title, not a made-up acronym.

5 – none

4 – Pierre Garcon and Haiti – Garcon, a Haitian native, has risen to the occasion in the past few weeks to ask for help for his homeland, and we expect him to do the same during some of the early-week media festivities. This isn’t game-related, but we hope that Garcon can call for and inspire more help for a land that still needs it. (And if you want to find something you can do to help, here’s one way.) Will it make Garcon play more inspired football? Perhaps, but even if it doesn’t, Garcon has a chance to do a lot of good here.

3 – Tim Tebow’s ad – Probably the biggest storyline in the NFL that has nothing to do with either the Colts or Saints is the debate over Tim Tebow appearing in a pro-life ad to be aired during the Super Bowl. Obviously, this has nothing to do with the game, but it incites discussion because it hits on such a hot-button issue. So there is sound and fury here, but it obviously signifies nothing about the game.

2 – Darren Sharper’s impact – Sharper will be a Media Day darling, because his Pro Bowl season in his first New Orleans campaign looks to be the biggest difference between the Saints defense from last year to this one. Sharper may get a hair too much credit – he has a high profile from his time in Green Bay and Minnesota, and his constant friendliness to the media gets returned with praise – but he has been a huge addition for the Saints. His veteran wiles have rubbed off on his secondary teammates, and his own play has been quite good. So in the end, we’re good with whatever pub Sharper gets during the week, because his impact on the field on Sunday figurees to be substantial as well.

1- Sean Payton’s 250K gamble – Coming off of last year’s 8-8 season, Payton, the Saints head coach, sought to improve his defense, and to do so he wanted to hire high-profile coordinator Gregg Williams, who was leaving Jacksonville. But he was afraid that someone else would swoop in and lure Williams away, and so Payton volunteered to give up a quarter of a million dollars of his own salary to enhance the package the Saints could offer Williams. This story hasn’t gotten a ton of airplay, but Williams’ attacking defense – and its propensity to cause turnovers – is a huge reason the Saints are in the game. And we believe that if the Saints are to win on Super Sunday, Williams’ D will have to force at least two turnovers. So this storyline is underplayed, because it has a huge effect on the outcome of the game.

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