Let’s take a break from the ongoing lockout to dive back into the draft. Now, after analyzing Cam Newton and Ryan Mallett, we move to another prominent QB – Missouri’s Blaine Gabbert. Gabbert is the buzzworthy guy this week, even before his Thursday pro day. He’s shown up atop mock drafts on ESPN and Sports Illustrated, and he’s now considered the safest option among the top QB prospects.
But I’m not so sure.
For some reason, Gabbert reminds me of Tim Couch and Joey Harrington. Couch was the first of five quarterbacks taken in the top 12 picks of the 1999 draft. I was in NYC for that draft, and it was shocking to see how Couch rose to the top of the list. He had the size, the arm strength, and the accuracy, which is why the Cleveland Browns opted for Couch. Of course, Couch busted out (as did No. 2 pick Akili Smith of the Bengals and No. 12 pick Cade McNown of the Bears). Instead, Donovan McNabb, at No. 3, emerged as the best quarterback in the draft, with Daunte Culpepper at No. 11 also meriting his spot.
Here’s why Gabbert reminds me of Couch. The Missouri quarterback has prototypical size at 6-5, and he has pretty good feet as well. He also spread the ball around effectively in a college spread offense with good accuracy. But neither was known for his deep-throwing arm, which begs the question of whether Gabbert is a system quarterback, like Couch was.
And that’s where the Harrington comparison comes in. Harrington was the golden boy at Oregon when the Lions picked him third overall in 2002. The Panthers, who held the second overall pick that year, passed on Harrington in favor of DE Julius Peppers. Peppers went on to have a terrific career in Carolina, while Harrington was a failure in Detroit.
Maybe that memory is why I don’t see the Panthers, picking first overall this year, pulling the trigger on Gabbert. GM Marty Hurney, who made the 2002 pick, is still in charge, and he isn’t going to take a quarterback as a fallback. That’s what Gabbert feels like – the “safe” quarterback pick who isn’t the dynamic talent that most No. 1 QBs are.
Gabbert was good, not great, in college, and our sense is that’s his NFL ceiling as well. Later in the top 10 – to Tennessee at 8, for example – he makes sense. But any quarterback known more for efficiency than talent is a question mark. Making that pick is how you end up with a Harrington/Couch/Matt Leinart kind of disappointment.
I don’t believe the Panthers will fall victim to that trap. And that means they won’t be saying Yo Gabba Gabbert at No. 1.
(And I didn’t even have to make this point to come to that conclusion.)