FR: Week 9

Here is our Football Relativity comparison after Week Nine. We’ve noted where we’ve moved teams up a level or down a level from the Week Eight comparison.

10 – Indianapolis Colts, New Orleans Saints – The Colts and Saints both faced challenges and beat them back this week. The Colts rode a quick no-huddle attack to an early lead against the Texans and then withstood a last-second field goal attempt to eke out a 20-17 victory. The Colts sustained major injury issues last week, and those will be even more difficult to overcome next week vs. the Patriots, but for now they are 8-0 and in solid control in the AFC South after the win over Houston. The Saints fell behind to the Panthers 14-0 on two DeAngelo Williams touchdown runs, but the Saints worked their way back and got explosive plays from Devery Henderson and Robert Meachem to take the lead and then a defensive touchdown to put the game away. The Saints’ offense remains the most potent in the league, in large part because of the tremendous depth of targets, and the defense is opportunistic even if it’s not dominant. The one red flag is the fact that the Saints have been run on the last three weeks, and eventually that could jump up and bite them. A team that has a strong running game and a decent passing game – like Atlanta or, ironically, Cincinnati - could control the clock enough to keep the Saints offense off the field and pull an upset. In fact, the Bengals might be the one team in the league I’d feel comfortable picking to beat New Orleans on a neutral field. That would have to be a Super Bowl game, but still. In summary, the fact that there’s such a limited strategy that can beat New Orleans shows how dangerous this team is.

9 – Minnesota Vikings, New England Patriots, Pittsburgh Steelers - The Vikings enjoyed their bye at 7-1. The Patriots got a solid if unspectacular 27-17 home victory vs. the Dolphins, but that was enough to put them in control in the AFC East. It’ll be interesting to see how the Patriots respond to the challenge of facing the Colts next week and to see if Tom Brady, Randy Moss and company can take advantage of Indy’s injury-riddled secondary. This seems like a matchup that could actually favor the Patriots, even if they’re on the road. Of course, New England’s defense will be severely tested in the process. That’s going to be one fun game Sunday night. The Steelers’ defense led the way in a 28-10 win in Denver. Now that Troy Polamalu is back to playing at full speed, the Steelers defense is back to being scary, and the offense is still good. This is a dangerous, dangerous team.

8 – Atlanta Falcons, Cincinnati Bengals (UP A LEVEL), Dallas Cowboys (UP A LEVEL), Denver Broncos - The Falcons restored order by beating the Redskins at home by two touchdowns. That was a taking-care-of-business win – the kind that good teams have. The Bengals swept the Ravens with a supersolid 17-7 victory. They are a physical team on both sides of the ball, and it shows. The fact that Cincy could beat Baltimore twice at what used to be the Ravens’ own game shows how far the Bengals have come this year. The Bengals go for another huge division sweep next week in Pittsburgh, and if they win that they should be able to cruise to a division title since they still have home games against the Browns, Lions, and Chiefs. The Cowboys got a huge road win at Philadelphia to take the NFC East lead. Dallas isn’t a perfect team, but the Cowboys don’t have a lot of glaring weaknesses either. It’ll be interesting to see whether they can stem off their usual late-season fade this year, but for now the Cowboys are legit. We’ll leave the Broncos in place for right now because we still think they’re better than the Chargers, but that’s going to be a major race in the AFC West. Denver’s offense is starting to make mistakes, and the Steelers exposed their defense as well. Those aren’t yet trends, but they are red flags.

7 – Arizona Cardinals (UP A LEVEL), Baltimore Ravens (DOWN A LEVEL), Houston Texans, New York Giants (DOWN A LEVEL), Philadelphia Eagles (DOWN A LEVEL), San Diego Chargers (UP A LEVEL) – The Cardinals continued their hot play on the road by blasting the Bears in Chicago. They’ve also shown that they’re easily the class of their division, despite their hiccups at home. The Chargers got a big win on the road as well, going to New York and taking down the Giants. That may portend the second half rally that Norv Turner has led the Chargers on for several years now. There’s certainly enough talent in San Diego for that kind of rally to happen. The Giants, meanwhile, limp into their bye on a four-game losing streak. The defensive injuries are still an issue, but the running game that has led the team over its recent success isn’t the same now. The Ravens lost to the Bengals again, and we can’t help but conclude that the Bengals are serious playoff contenders and that the Ravens are much closer to the fringes of the playoff race. The Eagles also lost a key division game, only they lost at home to the Cowboys. The Eagles are good, but they’re not consistent enough to be considered very good at this point. Houston missed a big chance at Indianapolis, but they remain a team that will be in contention for a playoff berth, which is what this level entails.

6 – Chicago Bears, Green Bay Packers, Miami Dolphins, New York Jets – This is a group of teams with major flaws that still have a realistic shot of mounting a playoff charge if they can mitigate their serious problems. The Jets were on bye this week.

5 – NONE – This is the 8-8 level, and right now we’re going to leave the teams at 6 above this level because we believe they are still capable of 9-7 marks. Conversely, it’s now hard to see any of the teams below this mark streaking to a .500 record.

4 – Carolina Panthers, Jacksonville Jaguars (UP A LEVEL), San Francisco 49ers (DOWN A LEVEL), Seattle Seahawks, Tennessee Titans (UP A LEVEL) – The Panthers put up a valiant fight against the Saints, but ultimately Carolina’s inability and unwillingness to throw the ball proved fatal. That passing-game deficiency will end up being the difference between 9 or 10 wins that Carolina could have had and the 6 or 7 that they’ll end up with. The Jaguars won a game they should have won vs. Kansas City, although they nearly choked it away. But while they’re 4-4, the Jags look like a team that’s just a tick below average. Maybe there’s a roll they can get on, but we doubt it. The Seahawks won a home game they should have won against Detroit, but that doesn’t change their fatal flaws either. This was just one of the 6 wins they’ll end up with this season as well. The 49ers, who looked like playoff contenders early on, lost a home game to the Titans and now have lost five straight. San Fran just doesn’t have enough talent to be a truly competitive team, and now they’re facing an uphill battle just to get to .500. Tennessee is finally starting to show some of the strengths that made them a playoff favorite entering the season. Plus, Vince Young is adding a different dimension to the offense. He’ll never be a pure drop-back passer, but he can be a threat, and the Titans are using him as such. Amazingly, Young is now 20-11 as an NFL starter in the regular season.

3 – Buffalo Bills – The Bills were on bye this week, and the other teams sharing a level with them moved up. It’s hard to see the Bills doing better than 5-11 given their talent and how their season has gone thus far.

2 – Detroit Lions, Kansas City Chiefs, Washington Redskins - We had to reshuffle the 2 and 1 levels now that Tampa Bay won and put themselves in this clump. When it shook out, we put the Lions and Chiefs above the rest of the dregs. Detroit took an early lead in Seattle but couldn’t hold it because of Matthew Stafford’s myriad interceptions. Still, Detroit is competitive, and they will jump up and surprise another team or two over the course of the season. The Chiefs are also capable of competing – remember that they took the Cowboys to OT in the game that started Dallas’ four-game winning streak. The Redskins are solid defensively, and that keeps them in games, but it’s hard to imagine the Skins mounting much of a charge beyond the 4-win level because the offense is so befuddled.

1 – Cleveland Browns (DOWN A LEVEL), Oakland Raiders (DOWN A LEVEL), St. Louis Rams (DOWN A LEVEL), Tampa Bay Buccaneers – As Tampa Bay took a small step forward, they caught this clump of teams, all of whom were on bye this week. The Bucs got a promising debut from rookie QB Josh Freeman, and with S Tanard Jackson back the pass defense might go from being abysmal to simply bad. We actually may have the Bucs a level too low at this point, but we’ll wait and see and console them with the fact that the 1 level is just a tad better than it was a week ago.

Fantasy Football Applaud or a Fraud – Week 9

Each week, we dive into the stat sheets to see which weekly performers fantasy owners should applaud and which fantasy owners should write off as frauds. You can read past applaud or a fraud analyses in the category listing. And if we’re changing a past recommendation, we’ll include it here as well.

Quarterbacks

Matt Cassel, Chiefs - Cassel threw for 262 yards and two touchdowns as the Chiefs valiantly but ultimately unsuccessfully tried to rally against the Jaguars. This is the kind of game that makes Cassel a decent fantasy backup, and his instant rapport with Chris Chambers is encouraging. But Cassel still is no better than the 15th best fantasy quarterback. If a quarterback between 15 and 20 on the chart helps you, Cassel’s your guy. But we can’t recommend him as more than that. Verdict: A fraud

Josh Freeman, Buccaneers - In his first career start, the rookie Freeman led the Buccaneers back to a 38-28 victory over the Packers. And while he completed just 14-of-31 passes, he ended up with three touchdown passes plus a two-point conversion. That’s more than fantasy owners can expect from Freeman on a weekly basis, but the fact that he showed he can do it makes him worth a pickup in leagues where any starting quarterback has value. If you’re in a 16-team league or a league in which you can start two quarterbacks, Freeman is worth a waiver claim. But your league has to be that big for a pickup to be worth it. That’s why we’re not clapping at this point. Verdict: A fraud

Matthew Stafford, Lions – Stafford threw two first-quarter touchdowns against Seattle, but he ended up with a rather pedestrian game with 203 passing yards and those two scores. Plus, he had five interceptions, which really hurts in many fantasy leagues. The best news is that Stafford is showing he is healthy. But as of now, it’s still hard to see Stafford contributing for fantasy owners unless they’re in a league in which starting two quarterbacks is a good option. Verdict: A fraud

Pat White, Dolphins – You might have noticed that White had 45 rushing yards against the Patriots out of the wildcat formation. But he had just one pass attempt, which was incomplete. My guess it that White got so much use because he was drafted to take the Wildcat to the next level specifically against the Patriots, which is why he got so much work in this particular game. But that view means that White has little to no value for fantasy owners going forward, even in leagues that feature multiple quarterback starters. Verdict: A fraud

Running backs

Ladell Betts, Redskins -After Redskins starter Clinton Portis suffered a concussion in the first quarter, Betts stepped in and had 15 carries for 70 yards and a touchdown against Atlanta. If Portis is sidelined, Betts is a borderline top 20 fantasy back, which makes him a starter in most leagues. That means that Betts is unquestionably worth a pickup if he’s available in your league. Verdict: Applaud

Jamaal Charles, Chiefs - With Larry Johnson suspended, Charles was supposed to be the Chiefs’ answer at running back. But while he averaged six yards per carry, he had just six carries and 36 rushing yards. That was half of the carries that Chiefs running backs got, in large part because the Chiefs fell so far behind so early. Charles is still the Chiefs’ best answer at running back, but that doesn’t mean he’s a legitimate answer for your fantasy team. He’s not a top-30 back. Verdict: A fraud

Ahman Green, Packers – Green had 45 rushing yards in Green Bay’s shocking loss at Tampa Bay, and he did it on just six carries. That’s enough to tell us that he’s now the primary backup to Ryan Grant. But Green isn’t worth a pick up unless you have Grant on your roster and want some insurance. Green is just too old to be a major fantasy factor at this point unless Grant gets hurt and the Packers run out of options. Verdict: A fraud

Laurence Maroney, Patriots - Maroney had another good game with 82 yards and a touchdown on 20 carries, and he did it in a close game. He’s now had a touchdown in three straight games and appears to be emerging as the Patriots’ No. 1 running back once again. That’s enough to make him a flex type of play in 10- or 12-team leagues. Maybe, just maybe, Maroney will once again live up to the fantasy hype he had two or three years ago. Verdict: Applaud

Ryan Moats, Texans – After his huge game in Week 8, Moats won a starting role in Houston. But Moats didn’t deliver on his shot, rushing for just 38 yards on 16 carries and fumbling once at the goal line. He did have a short receiving touchdown, and Moats got more work than Steve Slaton, but he looks more like a flex option than a surefire starter. Verdict: A fraud

Derrick Ward, Buccaneers - Ward has been one of the biggest fantasy disappointments at running back this season, and although he had a receiving touchdown against Green Bay, he still had just five rushing yards on four carries. So don’t let his 54 receiving yards fool you. Ward’s still not a guy that fantasy owners can count on. Verdict: A fraud

Beanie Wells, Cardinals - Wells got some extended work in Arizona’s blowout win over Chicago, and he paid off with 72 rushing yards on 13 carries. But Wells is still behind Tim Hightower in the Cardinals’ pecking order, and that means that Wells remains outside the top 30 at running back. So for now, Beanie has to remain on the bench in your fantasy league. Verdict: A fraud

Wide receivers

Earl Bennett, Bears – As the Bears flung the ball around in an ultimately unsuccessful comeback attempt, Bennett piled up 93 receiving yards on seven catches. Bennett is having a decent year, but he’s still outside of the top 50 fantasy receivers when you look at the rest of the year. Unless you’re in a mega-sized league of 16 teams or more, it’s not worth owning Bennett despite this solid game. Verdict: A fraud

Greg Camarillo, Dolphins – Camarillo is the Dolphins’ version of Wes Welker lite, and against the real Welker he had a decent game with five catches for 71 yards. Camarillo isn’t a guy with much fantasy upside, but if you need a fill-in to get you 50 yards or so he’s a decent bet. That’s not worth a waiver claim in most leagues, but if you’re desperate Camarillo is a name to know. Verdict: A fraud

Chris Chambers, Chiefs - Chambers, who was cut by San Diego earlier this week and then claimed on waivers by the Chiefs, broke out in his first game with K.C. He caught two second-half touchdowns and finished with three catches for 70 yards and those two scores. I don’t know if you can count on Chambers to be a consistent fantasy threat going forward, but he’s worth a claim this week so that you’re in position to see if he does. Claim him on a flier because there’s just enough of a chance that he might actually produce in his new home. Verdict: Applaud

Jason Hill, 49ers – Jason who? Hill, who had no catches this season and only two catches in his three-year career entering Sunday’s game against the Titans, had four catches for 50 yards with two touchdowns in that game. That looks like the epitome of a fluke. Hill should still be behind Michael Crabtree, Isaac Bruce, and Josh Morgan in the Niners’ WR pecking order, and San Fran doesn’t throw enough to support a fourth receiver as a fantasy option. Verdict: A fraud

Jacoby Jones and Kevin Walter, Texans – Both Jones and Walter finished the game with 67 receiving yards, Jones on four catches and Walter on five. It’s so hard to separate which of these two if Houston’s No. 2 receiving target now that Owen Daniels is out that you can’t start either guy with confidence. For now, Jones and Walter need to stay on your bench until we figure out which one is going to be the more dependable fantasy producer. Verdict: A fraud

James Jones, Packers – Jones is generally the Packers’ No. 4 receiver, but he moved up a slot with Jordy Nelson out. That enhanced role showed, as Jones had four catches for 103 yards and a touchdown against the Packers. Jones probably won’t deliver anything close to this on a regular basis, but he is capable of producing numbers every once in a while. Jones is a decent Hail Mary-type of player if you’re stuck, but with bye weeks all but done you likely won’t be in that much of a pickle. That means that Jones is worth leaving on the waiver wire. Verdict: A fraud

Lance Long, Chiefs – Chambers wasn’t the only Chiefs wideout to break out with a big game. Lance Long, who was with head coach Todd Haley in Arizona, had eight catches for 74 yards. Long isn’t a top-40 receiver, but in large leagues he’s worth a claim because he may be a guy the Chiefs want to take an extended look at the rest of the season. That could add to his fantasy value quite a bit. Verdict: Applaud

Robert Meachem, Saints – Meachem had a big game against Carolina, catching five passes for 98 yards and a touchdown. With Lance Moore continuing to battle injury problems, Meachem is developing into the Saints’ No. 2 wide receiver behind Marques Colston. Meachem had been a bust in his first two seasons, but he’s starting to contribute, and he’s moved into the top 40 among fantasy wideouts. Even better for fantasy owners, Meachem has a chance to continue moving forward. He’s got upside, and that makes him worth a claim if he’s still on your league’s waiver wire. Verdict: Applaud

Mike Sims-Walker, Jaguars - Sims-Walker has emerged as Jacksonville’s top receiver, and he is delivering big fantasy numbers as a result. His huge day Sunday against the Chiefs – six catches, 147 yards and a touchdown – is just a reminder that you should be starting Sims-Walker if you have him. Here’s the rule – if a Jaguar has a hyphenated last name, he should be in your lineup. Verdict: Applaud

Tight ends

Greg Olsen, Bears – In one league Sunday, I had to put Olsen in my lineup as a wide receiver/tight end at the last minute because Donald Brown and Anquan Boldin were both inactive after being questionable. That worked out, as Olsen exploded with three touchdowns among his five catches for 71 yards. Part of that was because the Bears were being blown out and therefore in throw-it-around mode, but it goes to show Olsen’s ability as a receiver. Maybe this will spark Olsen the rest of the season. At the very least, it rewards Olsen owners who have been patient. Mark Olsen down as a top-15 tight end right now and hope that this positive trend continues. He’s back to being a guy you should think hard about starting on a weekly basis. Verdict: Applaud

Brandon Pettigrew, Lions – Pettigrew caught a touchdown in the first quarter against Seattle and finished with a supersolid seven-catch, 70-yard game. He’s moving into the top 16 to 20 tight ends, which is putting him in starting range in large leagues. There still may be better options on your league’s waiver wire, but owners no longer need to be afraid of Pettigrew’s rookie status. He can contribute to your team. Verdict: Applaud

Rise/Sink/Float Week 9

Each Monday, we’ll look at 3 teams that are rising, sinking, and floating in our Football Relativity comparison. We’ll update the full comparison tomorrow.

Rise – Arizona Cardinals - The Cardinals keep bouncing between 6 and 7 on our comparison, which is ping-pong between those teams that should make the playoffs and those teams that could make the playoffs but have fatal flaws. The Cardinals still are flawed, but they have shown the ability to go on the road and win. And that means, despite their failings at home, they’re going to be tough to beat in the NFC West. Their 41-21 victory in Chicago was an impressive bounce back from last week’s home meltdown against the revenge-minded Panthers.

Sink – Baltimore Ravens – After losing to the Bengals 17-7 (and for the second time this season), we can no longer assert that the Ravens are true contenders in the AFC North. The defense, which played without stud DE Haloti Ngata in this game, just isn’t the same this year, and that makes the Ravens susceptible even with an improving offense. And the Bengals, like the Steelers, are just as physical as Baltimore (if not moreso), which takes away the big advantage the Ravens have had over much of this decade. Baltimore could still make the playoffs, but they’ll have to hope for a wild card to do so, and it will be an uphill climb along the way.

Float – Houston Texans - The Texans missed an opportunity in a 20-17 loss in Indianapolis, but there’s still no shame in losing a road game to the Colts. Houston is a playoff contender, but at 5-4 they’ll need a few breaks along the way. Still, they can go into their bye week knowing that they’ve had a good enough first half to make the second half of the season matter.

Week 8 moves

We do a weekly update on major NFL transactions. We include signings, releases, and also players who are put on injured reserve, because they are lost for the year. You can check out the Week 7 transactions here and work your way back through the season.

Additions

Chiefs (claim WR Chris Chambers on waivers, sign CB Travis Daniels) – The Chiefs pounced when their division rivals the Chargers cut Chambers, a quality receiver for a long time who seems to have lost a step or a grip or something. Chambers is probably still good enough to play for the Chiefs, though he’s not better than current No. 2 and No. 3 receivers Bobby Wade and Mark Bradley. Daniels, a former Dolphin and Brown who was among the Chiefs’ final cuts in September, comes in to add depth in the secondary after the Chiefs had to put S Jarrad Page on injured reserve for the rest of the season after suffering an injury in practice last week.

Broncos (add CB Ty Law) – Law isn’t the game changer he was back in his days with the Patriots, but last year he was an effective half-season player for the Jets. He kept himself in good shape last season, so it’s fair to assume he’ll be ready to play pretty much right away for the Broncos this year. He adds depth to a cornerback group that includes superstar Champ Bailey as well as Andre Goodman and rookie Alphonso Smith.

Buccaneers (add PK Connor Barth and Mike Mickens) – The Buccaneers tried to make two upgrades, signing Barth to replace Shane Andrus and signing Mickens to replace Marcus McCauley. As bad as the Bucs are, these moves won’t make the difference, but churning the roster looking for someone who can help now or in the future isn’t a bad plan.

49ers (add CB Keith Smith) – Smith, who spent the last five seasons with the Lions, adds depth to a secondary that will be without CB Nate Clements for several weeks. To make room for Smith on the roster, the Niners cut WR Micheal Spurlock.

Subtractions

Colts (put LB Tyjuan Hagler and CB Marlin Jackson on injured reserve) - You can read much more of the impact of these injuries in this post on the Colts. Indy promoted LB Cody Glenn from the practice squad to take Hagler’s roster spot and signed DE Josh Thomas, who played for the team over the past five years, to fill Jackson’s place on the 53-man roster.

Seahawks (cut RB Edgerrin James and CB Travis Fisher; put S C.J. Wallace on injured reserve) – James, who signed with the Seahawks just before the season, averaged just 2.9 yards per carry over the first seven games of the season. This is just about the end of James’ solid career. He did pile up just enough yards in Seattle to move into the top 10 on the NFL’s all-time rushing list, so that’s a positive to his lackluster Seahawk tenure. The Seahawks also cut Fisher, who had served as a backup corner, and put Wallace, a special-teamer, on injured reserve. By making these moves, Seattle cleared space to promote three players from the practice squad – WR Mike Hass, S Jamar Adams, and CB Roy Lewis. That will allow the Seahawks to get a look at these young players and see if they might fit as roster pieces going forward.

Texans (put TE Owen Daniels on injured reserve) – Daniels, one of the top three or four tight ends in the league, was having a great season before he suffered a torn ACL against Buffalo last week. He’s now gone for the season, which is a huge loss to the Texans’ prolific passing game. It will likely take a better effort from wide receivers Kevin Walter and Jacoby Jones to make up for Daniels’ absence, because the Texans don’t have another tight end who is anywhere close to Daniels as a receiver. To replace Daniels on the roster, the Texans promoted DE Jess Nading from the practice squad.

Patriots (cut OG Kendall Simmons) – The Pats took a chance on Simmons, the long-time Steeler who was trying to come back from a torn Achilles tendon he suffered last season, but Simmons never found a role in New England and his only game action came on special teams.

Falcons (put S Jamaal Fudge and LS Mike Schneck on injured reserve) – The Falcons put two more guys on injured reserve this week. Schneck was a reliable long snapper for the Falcons over the past several years. To replace him, the Falcons signed Bryan Pittman, who snapped for the Texans for many years. To replace Fudge, Atlanta added Charlie Peprah.

Bengals (cut OG Scott Kooistra) – Kooistra had been a backup for the Bengals since Marvin Lewis arrived in Cincy in 2003, but he had just one start during his tenure. His roster spot was taken by FB Fui Vakapuna, but his departure more likely means that rookie first-rounder Andre Smith is getting closer to playing.

Rams (cut WR Tim Carter) – Carter, a former Giant, never latched in St. Louis after arriving there earlier this season. If he can’t cut it in that mediocre receiving corps, he has little hope of hooking on elsewhere in the league.

Browns (cut PK Billy Cundiff and CB Anthony Madison) – Cundiff had served as a fill-in for the injured Phil Dawson, who is now ready to return. Madison had mainly played on special teams for Cleveland.

They shoot horses, don’t they?

It’s been a bad week to be a Colts defender, as Indy has had to put two key players on injured reserve this week. We thought we’d take a moment to break down the significance of the season-ending injuries of all-star S Bobb Sanders, starting OLB Tyjuan Hagler and CB Marlin Jackson along with the significant injury suffered by CB Kelvin Hayden.

Sanders is the biggest X-factor for the Colts defense. He is their Troy Polamalu, making plays against the run, rushing the passer, and in coverage. As with Pittsburgh, Indy’s defense loses a dimension when Sanders isn’t in there. This is a huge loss that takes away any scary element of the Colts’ D and makes them far more vulnerable.

Hagler, the Colts’ starting strong-side linebacker, suffered a ruptured biceps that will cost him the rest of the season. This will test the Colts’ depth at a position that wasn’t necessarily deep to begin with. Hagler isn’t a great player, but he has been dependable, ranking seventh on the team in tackles. He’s broken up three passes but has no sacks, interceptions, or forced fumbles. The Colts haven’t gotten many impact plays from regular starting LBs Clint Session and Gary Brackett either. Philip Wheeler, who does actually have a sack this season, will get the first chance to replace Hagler.

Jackson had lost his starting cornerback job to Jerraud Powers, but he still figured in as a nickel back. But he tore an ACL in practice this week and will now miss the rest of the season. That’s a blow, especially since CB Kelvin Hayden suffered a knee injury last week vs. the 49ers that will park him for a month.  Hayden is the Colts’ best cover corner, so he’s a big loss. Combine that with Jackson’s absence, and it’s a huge blow, especially considering that the Colts are using a more aggressive scheme that puts more pressure on its corners to perform.

The  injuries to Sanders, Hayden, and Jackson undoubtedly will make the Colts more susceptible to the pass, at least in the short term – and the pass defense wasn’t stellar in the first place. (And if you were inclined to pick the Texans to upset the Colts this week, you should feel a little better about that pick, because it’s easy to see Andre Johnson and company running amok in this decimated secondary.)

Indy promoted LB Cody Glenn from the practice squad to take Hagler’s roster spot and signed DE Josh Thomas, who played for the team over the past five years, to fill Jackson’s place on the 53-man roster.

Pick ‘em – Week 9

We got killed on the colleges last week and continue to really struggle there. The pro picks are a little better. We’ll see if we can turn it around this week by taking a whole bunch o’ points.

NCAA
South Carolina +7 at Arkansas
Navy +11.5 at Notre Dame
Oregon -7 at Stanford
Penn State -4 vs. Ohio State
Alabama -7.5 vs. LSU
Florida State +8.5 at Clemson
Oklahoma -6 at Nebraska

NFL
Arizona +3 at Chicago
Cincinnati +3 vs. Baltimore
Houston +9.5 at Indianapolis
Miami +11 at New England
Carolina +14 at New Orleans
San Diego +4.5 at N.Y. Giants
Philadelphia -3 vs. Dallas
Denver +3 vs. Pittsburgh

Last week 1-6 college, 4-2 pro
Season 33-55-1 college, 25-29-1 pro, 58-84-2 overall

Jersey Numbers: Wide Receivers

Over the next several weeks, we’re going to look at several different positions (I can’t yet promise all) to identify the best players wearing each jersey number at each position. If this goes as planned, we’ll then compile a list of the best player wearing each jersey number in the league.

If you have quibbles, or want to add someone I forgot, leave a comment and we’ll update this post. And please have patience – this is a big job.

We’ll start in this post with the best wide receivers at each jersey number. In general, wideouts are allowed to wear numbers between 10 and 19 as well as between 80 and 89.

10 – Santonio Holmes, Steelers – We’ll go with Holmes, the defending Super Bowl MVP, in this category, but it’s a close decision over DeSean Jackson of the Eagles. Both are significant starters for their teams and emerging stars in the league. Other notable 10: Jabar Gaffney, Broncos

11 – Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals – Fitzgerald is one of the very best receivers in the league, and so he gets the nod as the premier wideout wearing No. 11. He became a superstar in last year’s playoffs, doing what he had done in relative obscurity earlier in his career in Arizona. Fitzgerald is the real deal. Other notable 11s: Mike Sims-Walker, Jaguars; Mohammed Massaquoi, Browns; Roy Williams, Cowboys; Laveranues Coles, Bengals; Julian Edelman, Patriots; Legedu Naanee, Chargers; Roscoe Parrish, Bills; Stefan Logan, Steelers

12 – Marques Colston, Saints – Colston is the premier receiver on the league’s most potent offense, and now that he’s healthy he’s showing incredible skills for his size. That gives him the nod over Steve Smith of the Giants as the best No. 12 wideout in the league. Both Colston and Smith may have to move over for Minnesota rookie Percy Harvin at some point in the future. Other notable 12s: Michael Jenkins, Falcons; Justin Gage, Titans; Darrius Heyward-Bey, Raiders; Quan Cosby, Bengals

13 – Johnny Knox, Bears – Knox is the only notable receiver wearing No. 13 this year. The rookie out of Abilene Christian has had a nice freshman season in the NFL with three receiving TDs and a return for a score. Maybe he’ll make 13 a trendier, if not luckier, number for wideouts.

14 – Brandon Stokley, Broncos – Like 13, 14 isn’t a popular number for receivers. Stokley, who had good seasons with the Colts and the most memorable touchdown of the season off a tip in the opener against the Bengals, is the best of the bunch over St. Louis prospect Keenan Burton. Other notable 14: Eric Weems, Falcons

15 – Brandon Marshall, Broncos – Marshall’s numbers aren’t quite as good this season as fellow 15 Steve Breaston of Arizona, but Marshall is the more dynamic and more important player than Arizona’s talented third receiver. Marshall has the talent to be one of the league’s top-5 overall receivers. Other notable 15s: Kelley Washington, Ravens; Chris Henry, Bengals; Davone Bess, Dolphins; Michael Crabtree, 49ers; Courtney Roby, Saints

16 – Josh Cribbs, Browns - Lance Moore of the Saints is the only notable pure wide receiver wearing No. 16 right now, but Cribbs, Cleveland’s do-everything guy, plays enough receiver and has a receiver number, so he counts here. Cribbs catches the ball, returns kicks, and plays under center in the wildcat. He may be the league’s best return man, and he’s growing as an offensive force. Moore had a strong season as New Orleans’ slot receiver last year, but injuries have hampered his production this year. Other notable 16: Danny Amendola, Rams

17 – Braylon Edwards, Jets – Edwards had fallen out of favor in Cleveland last year and this season, and his numbers reflected that diminished importance, but he’s now in New York and gaining steam. So we’ll list him as the top 17 over rookies Mike Wallace of Pittsburgh and Austin Collie of Indianapolis. Other notable 17s: Donnie Avery, Rams; Robert Meachem, Saints

18 – Sidney Rice, Vikings – Rice is emerging as the Vikings’ most reliable receiver, and he has become one of Brett Favre’s favorite targets. His good size and exceptional ball skills and leaping ability are finally starting to shine through now that he’s in his third season. He beats a crop of rookies to earn the honor as the best receiver wearing 18. Other notable 18s: Kenny Britt, Titans; Jeremy Maclin, Eagles; Louis Murphy, Raiders; Sammie Stroughter, Buccaneers

19 - Miles Austin, Cowboys – Austin has come out of nowhere over the past three games to establish himself as an explosive threat and the Cowboys’ best receiver. Even with the return heroics of Miami’s Ted Ginn Jr. and Denver’s Eddie Royal this year, Austin is the best 19. Other notable 19: Devery Henderson, Saints

23 – Devin Hester, Bears – Because Hester came into the NFL as a defensive back, he’s been allowed to keep his old DB number of 23 even though he’s now a wide receiver. The fact that he’s Chicago’s No. 1 outside target makes this a legitimate listing for a bit of a funky number for a receiver.

80 – Andre Johnson, Texans – If you made me pick one receiver as the best in the league, this is the guy. He has freakish size, incredible speed, and great production throughout his career. The only pockmark on his resume is the fact that he’s been dinged up from time to time. So he gets an easy decision here over Donald Driver of Green Bay as the best receiver wearing 80. Other notable 80s: Earl Bennett, Bears; Malcom Floyd, Chargers; Bryant Johnson, Lions; Bobby Wade, Chiefs; Marty Booker, Falcons; Mike Thomas, Jaguars

81 – Randy Moss, Patriots – Moss is already an all-time great, and he’s still performing at a premium level for the Pats. This is an easy call, even though  current great Anquan Boldin of Arizona, past greats Torry Holt of the Jaguars and Terrell Owens of the Bills, and future great Calvin Johnson of Detroit also wear 81. This number has great depth of talent. Other notable 81: Nate Burleson, Seahawks

82 – Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs – As deep as 81 is in talent, 82 is thin. We’ll give the nod to Bowe over the Giants’ Mario Manningham because Bowe has had more good seasons, even though Manningham has been more impactful this year. Other notable 82s: Antwaan Randle El, Redskins; Brian Hartline, Dolphins

83 – Wes Welker, Patriots – Welker, who piles up gobs of catches as the jitterbug/security blanket of the Patriots offense, narrowly gets this nod over Vincent Jackson of San Diego, who has joined the list of the league’s 10 best receivers. Lee Evans of Buffalo doesn’t have equivalent numbers because his quarterbacks have stunk for years, but he’s no slouch either. Other notable 83s: Kevin Walter, Texans; Deion Branch, Seahawks; Sinorice Moss, Giants

84 – Roddy White, Falcons – White has emerged as one of the top receivers in the league over the past three years, and he looks like he’ll team with Matt Ryan for a long time as Atlanta’s dynamic duo. We’ll take the ascending White over the descending T.J. Houshmandzadeh, who has had a great career in Cincinnati but is starting to show signs of slippage in his first season in Seattle. Other notable 84s: Patrick Crayton, Cowboys; Josh Morgan, 49ers; Bobby Engram, Chiefs; Javon Walker, Raiders

85 – Chad Ochocinco, Bengals – We have to give this jersey-number to Ochocinco, since he changed his name to be his jersey number in Spanish (kind of). But Ochocinco deserves it given the renaissance year he is having with the Bengals. Derrick Mason of the Ravens contended for the honor based on his long career, while Greg Jennings of the Packers could claim this honor in the future. Other notable 85s: Pierre Garcon, Colts; Jerheme Urban, Cardinals

86 - Hines Ward, Steelers – There aren’t a lot of great receivers wearing 86, but there is one – Ward. The former Super Bowl MVP isn’t just great at catching the ball; he’s a vicious blocker downfield as well. He’s a borderline Hall of Famer who is still building his resume. Other notable 86s: Dennis Northcutt, Lions; Brian Finneran, Falcons

87 – Reggie Wayne, Colts – Wayne has seamlessly taken over for Marvin Harrison as Peyton Manning’s premier target in Indy, and now Wayne is building his own case for the Hall of Fame. There aren’t five receivers in the league who are better or more explosive than Wayne. Other notable 87s: Bernard Berrian, Vikings; Andre Caldwell, Bengals; Muhsin Muhammad, Panthers; Mike Furrey, Browns; David Clowney, Jets; Jordy Nelson, Packers; Domenik Hixon, Giants

88 – Isaac Bruce, 49ers – Bruce is no longer the dynamic force he was for years in St. Louis, but he’s good enough to claim this number as his lifetime achievement award. Rookie Hakeem Nicks of the Giants is the only other significant 88 as a receiver, but he looks as though he will be a good one. Other notable 88: Chansi Stuckey, Browns

89 – Steve Smith, Panthers – Smith hasn’t had the season this year that he’s had in the past, and he’s even felt at times that he wasn’t an asset to his team, but those problems have more to do with the struggles of Carolina QB Jake Delhomme than with Smith’s own shortcomings. Smith is just 5-foot-9, but he’s lightning quick, built like a brick house, tough to bring down, and shockingly good on jump balls. He’s still an elite receiver. Other notable 89s: Santana Moss, Redskins; Jerricho Cotchery, Jets; Mark Clayton, Ravens; Antonio Bryant, Buccaneers; James Jones, Packers

Suicide Pool Suggestions – Week 9

We piled up another win last week with the Bears over the lowly Browns. Let’s ride the train of picking against awful teams again with this week’s picks.

1. Atlanta over Washington – The Falcons have been great at home in the Georgia Dome, and the Redskins have been pretty bad most weeks. Even coming off a bye, we have to figure that the Falcons are good enough to get things done against the Skins. If the week had more good choices, we might wait to pick the Falcons until their home game against Tampa Bay in Week 12, but with the Browns, Raiders, and Rams on bye this week, there aren’t as many great suicide pool picks. So the right move is to cash in the Falcons now.

2. Seattle over Detroit – The Seahawks are beat up, but they’re still an OK home team, which should be enough to give them the W over the Lions. This is a riskier pick, but you won’t have a better chance all year to use the Seahawks and save other power teams.

3. Green Bay over Tampa Bay – If this were in Lambeau, it would be higher up the list, but this is the biggest mismatch of the week after Atlanta/Washington. The Bucs are simply awful, and the Pack is good enough to win the Battle of the Bays.

Trap to avoid: San Francisco over Tennessee – It would make sense to take the Niners at home against the Titans, but I want to see a little more about how the Titans play with Vince Young before we try to determine just how good the Titans are right at this moment. That makes this game one to stay away from.

Week 8: W Chicago (over Cleveland)
Week 7: W Indianapolis (over St. Louis)
Week 6: L Jets (vs. Buffalo)
Week 5: W Philadelphia (over Tampa Bay)
Week 4: W San Francisco (over St. Louis)
Week 3: L Houston (vs. Jacksonville)
Week 2: L Jacksonville (vs. Arizona)
Week 1: W New Orleans (over Detroit)

How great is Favre, really?

My brother Kam sent me an interesting link this week that tried to argue that Brett Favre is even better than we think. Basically, this blogger argues that Brett Favre’s career interception percentage of 3.3 percent is much better than most of the QBs in the Hall of Fame — thus undercutting the big argument against Favre as an all-time great.

It’s an interesting theory, but as my brother and I discussed it, we quickly came to the conclusion that there’s an era gap here that the blogger tried to gloss over. Current-era Hall of Famers Troy Aikman, Dan Marino, John Elway, Joe Montana, and Steve Young are all below Favre in terms of interception percentage. Only Warren Moon and Jim Kelly (both of whom started in the NFL about five years before Favre) are above him in this stat.

And as we look at the career passer rating list, this change in eras bears out. Favre is just 18th on this list, behind many the great QBs of the eras in which he’s played — Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Steve Young, Joe Montana, Drew Brees, and Dan Marino. Meanwhile, the only QB from before the Bill Walsh era in the top 20 is Otto Graham, who is an all-time great who always seems to get lost in the discussion.

So while the interception stat doesn’t tell us much about Favre in the end, it does indicate how much the game changed when Bill Walsh came on the scene as a head coach around 1980. (We’d say that the Walsh era began with the Niners’ first Super Bowl win in the 1981 season.)

Kam said this in the discussion…
Most people think of interception stats vis-a-vis the TD to interception ratio.  nteresting here to consider it as pass attempts to interception, although I wonder what Favre’s completion rate in general is compared to other QBs with comparable yardage and TDs. You’re right that completion rate and TD-interception ratio would be skewed now in the post West-coast era. Fewer and fewer QBs who can actually throw the ball down the field. 

 In my mind, I still don’t see Favre on the same level as modern standout QBs like Peyton, Brady or Drew Brees (potentially Matt Ryan). You can’t help but admire Favre’s passion, but he has lost his teams many games, too, with his cavalier approach to the quarterback position. Might be the difference between one and three Super Bowl wins.    

 

So where do we compare Favre among the great quarterbacks of his era (1992-on)? I’d put the following guys above Favre:

*John Elway

*Steve Young (won his Super Bowl in the Favre era)
*Peyton Manning

*Tom Brady
*Troy Aikman (this one is close, because Aikman never piled up monster numbers, but the three Super Bowls vs. one makes the difference)

 

I’m reserving judgment today on Ben Roethlisberger and Drew Brees. They’re too young right now to say where their careers will truly end up.

 

I’d put Favre before Warren Moon, Donovan McNabb, and Kurt Warner, though Warner and McNabb could pass Favre with huge late-career spikes.

I’m not considering Joe Montana, Dan Marino, or Jim Kelly in Favre’s era, because they were more 1980s guys than 90s guys.

 

That makes Favre a great quarterback but not among the top-5 quarterbacks ever. In fact, when you add in old-timers like Otto Graham and others, Favre would have to push to make the top 10. That doesn’t diminish his greatness, but it does show that his numbers – even his interception numbers – don’t tell the whole story.

Crazy Kicker of Week 8

What does it take for a team to break a long losing streak? It takes a crazy kicker. At least that was the case for the St. Louis Rams, who broke a 17-game losing streak thanks in no small part to placekicker Josh Brown. We named Brown one of the league’s most clutch kickers a few weeks ago, but in this game Brown completed his first career pass for a 46-yard touchdown as the Rams faked a 54-yard field goal in the final minute of the first half. The Brown TD put the Rams up 10-2, and they went on to win 17-10.

You can watch Brown’s heroics in the highlights here.

We’ve also retroactively awarded our crazy kicker award to Seattle punter Jon Ryan. Somehow we missed it, but Ryan had a 42-yard pass to John Carlson in Week 6 against the Cardinals. I couldn’t find the video, but the Seahawks radio call is here. The fact that we can give this award to a Canadian is especially sweet.

Crazy Kickers of the Week
Preseason Week 0/1 – P A.J. Trapasso, Titans
Preseason Week 2 – WR/PK Chad Ochocinco, Bengals
Week 1 – P/holder Hunter Smith, Redskins
Week 3 – P/holder Brian Moorman, Bills
Week 5 – P Steve Weatherford, Jets
Week 6 – P Jon Ryan, Seahawks
Week 8 – PK Josh Brown, Rams