Suicide Pool Suggestions – Week 11
We eked out a win last week with the Dolphins, so that pick was worth it despite the heartburn it caused. Here are this week’s picks.
1. Arizona at St. Louis – The Rams have been playing a tick better, but they are still ungood. The Cards, meanwhile, have been quite good on the road. So we’ll take this mismatch even though it’s a roadie.
2. Minnesota vs. Seattle – If you haven’t yet used the Vikes, this Steve Hutchinson Bowl is a great chance to do it. The Seahawks just don’t have enough firepower to keep up with a team like Minnesota.
3. New Orleans at Tampa Bay – The Saints are on the road, and they still have a home game against the Bucs to come, but if you need a safe pick this is it.
Trap to avoid: Pittsburgh at Kansas City – The Steelers should win this, but the Chiefs have occasionally played over their heads at home this year. Just wait for the Steelers to play Cleveland instead of using them here.
Week 10: W Miami (over Tampa Bay)
Week 9: W Atlanta (over Washington)
Week 8: W Chicago (over Cleveland)
Week 7: W Indianapolis (over St. Louis)
Week 6: L Jets (vs. Buffalo)
Week 5: W Philadelphia (over Tampa Bay)
Week 4: W San Francisco (over St. Louis)
Week 3: L Houston (vs. Jacksonville)
Week 2: L Jacksonville (vs. Arizona)
Week 1: W New Orleans (over Detroit)
Jauron is gone; Now what?
The Bills gave up on head coach Dick Jauron this week after a 3-6 start and a 24-33 record over three and a half years. Defensive coordinator Perry Fewell gets the interim nod, but the Bills are already chasing Mike Shanahan among others.
It makes sense for the Bills to stake their place in line for Shanahan, who promises to be the most chased big-name coach this offseason. With Jon Gruden staying with ESPN’s Monday Night Football and Mike Holmgren pointing toward front-office gigs. Shanahan would be a great get for the Bills, but he would be crazy to sign on without seeing what other options present themselves after the season. That’s because Buffalo isn’t a prime destination for coaches. The franchise isn’t going to be a consistent outbidder, and the roster is weak right now at quarterback and in the front seven on defense.
The scary thing about early reports for Bills fans is the inclusion of names like Kevin Gilbride and Marc Trestman. Gilbride has done a good job as Giants offensive coordinator, but he bombed as a head coach in San Diego. Trestman, meanwhile, is winning in the CFL but has been only so-so as a coordinator in the big-time league.
Having those names in the mix makes you wonder if approaching Shanahan is a red herring that the Bills are using to placate their fans while they go for a cheaper alternative like Gilbride or Trestman. That would be awful, because what Buffalo needs is someone who can take the personnel evaluation skills that are in place and put a master plan together to build a team with that personnel. Without that, the Bills are doomed to stay in mediocrity going forward.
Crazy Kicker of Week 10
We have our first repeat winner of the crazy kicker of the week award. Washington’s Hunter the Punter Smith, who ran for a touchdown in Week 1, threw a touchdown pass to Mike Sellers out of a fake field goal set against Denver in Week 10. It wasn’t just a duck of a pass either — Smith rolled right and then gunned the ball across the field and about 30 yards downfield to find Sellers for the score. Just watch…
Smith, whose only other career attempt was incomplete in 2005, could become the craziest kicker of all time if he can somehow add a touchdown catch to his repetoire by the end of the season. Congrats to Hunter the Punter for his fine display of trickery thus far.
Crazy Kickers of the Week
Preseason Week 0/1 – P A.J. Trapasso, Titans
Preseason Week 2 – WR/PK Chad Ochocinco, Bengals
Week 1 – P/holder Hunter Smith, Redskins
Week 3 – P/holder Brian Moorman, Bills
Week 5 – P Steve Weatherford, Jets
Week 6 – P Jon Ryan, Seahawks
Week 8 – PK Josh Brown, Rams
Week 10 – P/holder Hunter Smith, Redskins
Jersey Numbers: Quarterbacks
Over the next several weeks, we’re going to look at several different positions (I can’t yet promise all) to identify the best players wearing each jersey number at each position. If this goes as planned, we’ll then compile a list of the best player wearing each jersey number in the league.
If you have quibbles, or want to add someone I forgot, leave a comment and we’ll update this post. And please have patience – this is a big job.
We started this project with wide receivers in this post and then with tight ends in this post. Now we move to quarterbacks, who wear numbers between 1 and 19.
1 – None – Sorry Warren Moon and Jeff George, but no significant quarterback in the NFL is currently wearing No. 1.
2 – Matt Ryan, Falcons – Two young quarterbacks wear No. 2, and Ryan, who is the future of the franchise in Atlanta, is an easy choice over JaMarcus Russell, who apparently cannot be the future of the franchise in Oakland. Other notable 2s: Brian St. Pierre, Cardinals; Chris Simms, Broncos, Sage Rosenfels, Vikings
3 – Derek Anderson, Browns – Anderson is no good and is having an even worse year, but he’s the only quarterback who has seen the field this season that wears No. 3, so he wins this by default. But you can go ahead and expect Anderson to lose to a kicker or punter in the final jersey number comparison. Other notable 3: Matt Moore, Panthers
4 – Brett Favre, Vikings – There’s no question that Favre is not only the most significant No. 4 currently playing now; he may be the best No. 4 in the history of the league. Part of that is that 4 was never a popular number before Favre, and part of it is of course Favre’s longevity and production. Other notable 4: Kevin Kolb, Eagles
5 – Donovan McNabb, Eagles – When McNabb first started wearing No. 5, it seemed like a bit of a novelty for a quarterback. But now this is a popular number. Still, McNabb remains the standard-bearer, both for his current play and his long and storied career. But it’ll be interesting to see how long McNabb can hold off up-and-coming Joe Flacco to keep the claim on 5. Other notable 5s: Kerry Collins, Titans; Trent Edwards, Bills, Josh Freeman, Buccaneers; Bruce Gradkowski, Raiders
6 – Jay Cutler, Bears – Cutler narrowly wins this number’s honors over rookie Mark Sanchez, simply because Cutler has a little longer pedigree. At the end of the year or next year, the decision could be different. Other notable 6: Pat White, Dolphins
7 – Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers – Big Ben wears 7 in honor of John Elway, one of the greatest 7s of all time. Now Roethlisberger is writing his legacy at the number with two Super Bowl titles very early in his career. The fact that Big Ben seems to be emerging as a passer is a sign that his career may actually be starting an upswing just now. Other notable 7s: Matt Cassel, Chiefs; Chad Henne, Dolphins; Byron Leftwich, Buccaneers; Matt Leinart, Cardinals; Tarvaris Jackson, Vikings; Michael Vick, Eagles
8 – Matt Hasselbeck, Seahawks – This was a tough call. Matt Schaub of the Texans is having by far a better year than Hasselbeck, but Hasselbeck has a much better career at this point. So we’ll side with experience over the present, knowing full well that we might want to flip the tables on this number very soon. Other notable 8s: Kyle Orton, Broncos; David Carr, Giants; Brian Hoyer, Patriots
9 – Drew Brees, Saints – Brees may be for the early 2010s what Tom Brady and Peyton Manning were for most of this decade. He’s at the top of his game, piling up numbers with great accuracy and providing great leadership to boot. And if he can get a Super Bowl ring this year, his status will only grow. As good as Dallas’ Tony Romo, Cincinnati’s Carson Palmer, and Jacksonville’s David Garrard are, they aren’t in Brees’ league. Other notable 9: Matthew Stafford, Lions
10 – Eli Manning, Giants – Manning isn’t a perfect quarterback, but he’s good and he’s won his share of games and then some. That’s enough to earn him the 10 spot over declining players like Marc Bulger of St. Louis and Chad Pennington of Miami. Other notable 10s: Matt Flynn, Packers; Brady Quinn, Browns; Vince Young, Titans; Troy Smith, Ravens
11 – Daunte Culpepper, Lions – There are no current star quarterbacks wearing 11, so we’ll give this honor to a former star in Culpepper who has started a couple of games this year. Other notable 11s: Josh Johnson, Buccaneers; Alex Smith, 49ers; Mark Brunell, Saints; Kellen Clemens, Jets
12 – Tom Brady, Patriots – It’s an easy call to give the honors at 12 to Brady, who’s already got the resume of an all-time great. Plus, Brady continues to perform at the highest of levels. He remains the real deal. Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers is a good quarterback, but he’s outside Brady’s echelon. Other notable 12s: Brodie Croyle, Chiefs; Kyle Boller, Rams; Josh McCown, Panthers; Jim Sorgi, Colts
13 – Kurt Warner, Cardinals – This is another easy call, as Warner is playing at a high level 10 years after he burst on the scene in St. Louis. His career has been a little up and down, but at his best there are few better than Warner. Other notable 13: Shaun Hill, 49ers
14 – Ryan Fitzpatrick, Bills – Fitzpatrick isn’t great, but he’s the only QB wearing 14 who has even played this year. Dan Fouts must be ashamed.
15 – Seneca Wallace, Seahawks – This is another slow number, as Wallace and Washington backup Todd Collins are the only quarterbacks wearing 15. We almost gave this to Tim Tebow in advance, but we’ll stick with NFL players for now.
16 – Charlie Batch, Steelers – At least we had a choice at 16 between Batch, the former Lions starter who’s now Big Ben’s backup, and Tyler Thigpen, who had some good games in K.C. last year before going to the Dolphins via trade this year.
17 - Philip Rivers, Chargers – Rivers isn’t on the Brees-Manning-Brady level, but he may be the best of the next batch of quarterbacks. He’s productive and continuing to grow as a leader and late-game threat. Other notable 17s: Jason Campbell, Redskins; Jake Delhomme, Panthers
18 - Peyton Manning, Colts – There’s no question here that Manning is by far the best 18 not only at quarterback but at any position in the league. No player is doing more to elevate his team this season than Manning, who is carrying his team to the top of the pack once again.
19 – NONE – No quarterbacks are wearing 19 this year either. Apparently young QBs need to see more Johnny Unitas highlights.
FR: Week 10
Here is our Football Relativity comparison after Week 10. We’ve noted where we have moved teams up or down from the Week 9 comparison.
10 – Indianapolis Colts, New Orleans Saints - Both of the league’s undefeated teams had close shaves this week, with the Colts rallying to win an epic matchup over New England and the Saints holding off the Rams. Neither team is perfect, but they both keep getting it done.
9 – Cincinnati Bengals (UP A LEVEL), Minnesota Vikings, New England Patriots, Pittsburgh Steelers – The Bengals took control of the AFC North by winning in Pittsburgh and show that they are for real. The Steelers shouldn’t be penalized harshly for losing to this good of a team. The Vikings took care of business against the Lions and are cruising to a first-round bye. The Pats blew a chance in Indy, which should cost them a playoff bye week, but they are still a very scary team to face.
8 – San Diego Chargers – The Bolts took over first place in the AFC West, and they are in full stride now. Considering how much better the Chargers usually play in the second half of the season, they are really emerging as an AFC threat. The defense is showing signs of life, and Philip Rivers is a top-5 quarterback in the league now.
7 – Arizona Cardinals, Atlanta Falcons (DOWN A LEVEL), Baltimore Ravens, Dallas Cowboys (DOWN A LEVEL), Denver Broncos (DOWN A LEVEL), Houston Texans, New York Giants, Philadelphia Eagles – The Texans and Giants both took their byes with 5-4 records. Arizona had a solid home win against the Seahawks, thus firming up their hold on the NFC West. Denver had a bad loss in Washington and now has major questions both on defense and at quarterback with Kyle Orton ailing. Dallas looked awful at Green Bay, which is troubling because the Cowboys so often collapse down the stretch. Atlanta lost at Carolina, continuing the Falcons’ rep as a team that can’t win on the road. Philly lost at San Diego, which is no shame but does say that the Eagles aren’t a special team. Baltimore looked awful but got the job done in Cleveland to stay in the playoff hunt.
6 – Green Bay Packers, Miami Dolphins – The Packers got a much needed home win against Dallas, which restarts their playoff push. Miami narrowly avoided disaster at home against the Bucs. Miami isn’t a great team, but they are tough and could still make some trouble for contenders down the road.
5 – Carolina Panthers (UP A LEVEL), Chicago Bears (DOWN A LEVEL), Jacksonville Jaguars (UP A LEVEL), New York Jets (DOWN A LEVEL), San Francisco 49ers (UP A LEVEL) – The Jags won at the Jets in a battle to stay above .500. Jacksonville is inconsistent, but at their best they can be playoff-caliber. The Jets, meanwhile, are in a downward spiral to the point that the playoffs look more and more unrealistic for them. San Fran beat Chicago, leaving both teams 4-5. The Niners have a supertough defense, but the offense struggles to score points. That’s going to end up being the Niners’ fatal flaw. Chicago hasn’t gotten a complete game from the offense and defense in quite a while. The Bears have sons talent, but not enough to overcome the mistakes they’ve been making on both sides of the ball. Carolina has fought back to 4-5, and even though they can’t really throw the ball they are a dangerous opponent. The playoffs are still a long shot, but Carolina has brought a postseason berth back within the realm of possibility.
4 – Seattle Seahawks, Tennessee Titans – Vince Young moved to 3-0 as a starting QB in the Titans’ win over Buffalo. More importantly, Tennessee has gotten healthy enough on defense to at least be representative. Seattle lost at Arizona, showing once again that while they are better than a bad team, they aren’t good enough to overcome quality opponents.
3 – Buffalo Bills, Washington Redskins (UP A LEVEL) - It was no surprise the Bills lost in Tennessee. Buffalo just isn’t good enough to beat a halfway decent team, especially on the road. The Redskins showed signs of life by beating Denver at home. Washington has a decent defense, and Jason Campbell has been playing better since Sherman Lewis took over as play caller. There might be a glimmer of hope in this situation after all.
2 – Detroit Lions, Kansas City Chiefs, St. Louis Rams (UP A LEVEL), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (UP A LEVEL) – The Lions lost at Minnesota. Now this week’s home game vs. Cleveland shapes up as Detroit’s best chance for a second win in 2009. K.C. got revenge by winning in Oakland, but they must now return home without Dwayne Bowe, their biggest offensive threat. St. Louis lost to New Orleans, but the Rams move up as they become competitive more consistently. Tampa has looked much better in rookie QB Josh Freeman’s two starts, which is a positive sign for the future.
1 – Cleveland Browns, Oakland Raiders – Cleveland has the league’s worst offense, so even when the Browns play OK defensively as they did against Baltimore, they have no chance. The Raiders blew a home game vs. Kansas City and look basically hopeless as well.
Rise/Sink/Float Week 10
Each Monday, we’ll look at 3 teams that are rising, sinking, and floating in our Football Relativity comparison. We’ll update the full comparison tomorrow.
Rise – Cincinnati Bengals – I went to the Wake Forest/Florida State game Saturday with my wife and met my friend Carl there. During the game, I made the comment that I included in last week’s Football Relativity post about how the Bengals might be the team most able to give the Saints trouble. He scoffed at Cincy’s Super Bowl chances, and I did too, but with the proviso that the Bengals could show just how real they were by beating the Steelers. The Bengals did exactly that, and I’m not scoffing anymore. Ochocinco doesn’t have to bribe me to get me to say that the Bengals are legit contenders. They now control their own destiny to get a first-round bye, and they are good enough offensively and defensively to do exactly that. Count me on the bandwagon.
Sink – Atlanta Falcons – There is no shame in losing to the Panthers right now. Carolina is playing better, especially at home. But the Falcons are showing a tendency of losing road games to anyone who’s decent, and that has now identified them as a team that’s not good yet. Atlanta will still get 9 or 10 wins and will probably make the playoffs, but they aren’t really a postseason threat because they would have to win on the road, and they just can’t do so.
Float – New England Patriots – The Pats lost a heartbreaker in Indy, in large part because Bill Belichick did what he often does by going for it on fourth down in his own end. But we won’t penalize the Pats in our comparison for proving they can play with Indy. Despite having three losses, New England is still an incredibly dangerous opponent that no playoff team would want to host.
This week’s NFL lesson
On our Most Valuable Network blog, we highlighted the big lesson we learned from watching the NFL this week. That lesson?
Be careful what you wish for.
To find out who taught us this lesson, visit MVN’s Football Wire.
Suicide Pool Suggestions – Week 10
We got a win with the Falcons last week, so we’re back to building a streak. Plus, we told you to stay away from the Niners vs. the Titans. Hopefully that makes up for putting the Packers over the Bucs as our No. 2 suggestion. On to this week’s suggestions…
1. Miami over Tampa Bay – Yes, the Bucs won last week, but that was against a team that struggles defensively and in pass protection. We feel confident that the Dolphins, a solid team, will beat the Bucs into submission with their running game. And there’s no way that Miami will let Josh Freeman throw three late touchdowns to beat them. This is a bit of a risky pick, simply because the Dolphins are only 3-5, but this is the ideal spot to use the Dolphins to save power teams down the stretch.
2. Minnesota over Detroit – If you’re in the mood for a safer pick, the Vikings are your team. They whipped the Lions in Detroit earlier this year and are hands down better. So this is the time to use this power team if you’re risk-averse.
3. Tennessee over Buffalo – This is another super-risky pick, but we feel like the Titans have righted the ship with Vince Young and are now ready to pile up a few wins. One over Buffalo, especially in Nashville, is predictable.
Traps to avoid - Arizona vs. Seattle, Baltimore at Cleveland – The Cardinals are better than the Seahawks, but the fact that they’ve struggled so much at home is a bit of a red flag. The bigger red flag is in Cleveland, where the Browns have the advantage of coming off a bye vs. the Ravens. Remember that the Browns played way, way over their heads in primetime games last year.
Week 9: W Atlanta (over Washington)
Week 8: W Chicago (over Cleveland)
Week 7: W Indianapolis (over St. Louis)
Week 6: L Jets (vs. Buffalo)
Week 5: W Philadelphia (over Tampa Bay)
Week 4: W San Francisco (over St. Louis)
Week 3: L Houston (vs. Jacksonville)
Week 2: L Jacksonville (vs. Arizona)
Week 1: W New Orleans (over Detroit)
Pick ‘em Week 10
We finally got some traction with the pro picks last week. The colleges continue to confuse us. Here are this week’s picks…
NCAA
West Virginia +9 at Cincinnati
Tennessee +4.5 at Ole Miss
USC -11 vs. Stanford
Florida -15.5 at South Carolina
Auburn +4.5 at Georgia
Oklahoma State -4 vs. Texas Tech
Notre Dame +7 at Pittsburgh
Arizona E at California
NFL
Chicago +3 at San Francisco
Carolina +2 vs. Atlanta
Cincinnati +7 at Pittsburgh
Dallas -3 at Green Bay
San Diego -3 vs. Philadelphia
New England +3 at Indianapolis
Last week 2-5 college, 6-2 pro
Season 35-60-1 college, 31-31-1 pro, 66-91-2 overall
