NFL bookshelf – Home Team

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With the season opening Thursday, it’s an appropriate time to update our NFL bookshelf with thoughts on Saints head coach Sean Payton’s book Home Team: Coaching the Saints and New Orleans back to Life. The book tells the tale not just of the Saints’ 2009 Super Bowl season but also of Payton’s journey from college player to NFL coach. In fact, that journey may be more enlightening than Payton’s thoughts on building the Saints. Hearing Payton talk about moving his family and about failing in job interviews was a far more personal insight than I expected.

While most reviews concentrated on Payton’s blunt retelling of his celebration methods, we found his motivational tactics more compelling. Hearing the story about why the team resigned Deuce McAllister during last year’s playoffs or why he decided on a game-turning onside kick to open the second half during the Super Bowl. Coaches looking for ideas on inspiring their teams can learn from Payton’s tactics and his overall mindset.

Most coaching books are filled with cliches instead of insight, but Payton avoided that trap more than most. It’s not great literature, but Home Team is an interesting and quick read, and it’s worth having on your bookshelf, especially if you’re a Saints fan.

Outlandish prediction: The parachute team of 2010

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Each preseason, as we finalize our season preview, we use our outlandish predictions to try to identify a team that’s on the rise (the jet back team of the year) and a team that’s falling (the parachute team). We’ll start with the downside in this post with a team that we believe will fall out of the playoffs this season after a berth last year – the Arizona Cardinals.

The Cardinals are coming off back-to-back playoff appearances, but their hopes for a third straight January appointment are dimming because of a severe talent drain. QB Kurt Warner retired, while S Antrel Rolle, WR Anquan Boldin, and LB Karlos Dansby left for other teams. The tale of the Cardinals’ season will be told by how they replace these players. It’s not going well at quarterback, where former first-rounder Matt Leinart has lost the starting job to Derek Anderson, an inconsistent passer who will make some big plays and some terrible ones as well. The ratio of dynamic to dumb plays will determine Anderson’s effectiveness, and he’s only gotten that ratio right in one year in his career. Anderson will have a fine stable of receivers, even with Boldin gone. Larry Fitzgerald is one of the two or three best receivers in the league, and Steve Breaston is ready to emerge as a starter. Early Doucet will step up to give Arizona a dangerous three-wide set once again. The run game is in good hands with Beanie Wells and Tim Hightower, and head coach Ken Whisenhunt may use Warner’s retirement as the impetus to move toward a more run-heavy attack. The Cardinals’ offensive line isn’t great, but it’s good enough to block for the run and to keep quarterbacks largely upright. On defense, the Cardinals have an elite defensive end in Darnell Dockett and an emerging one in Calais Campbell. Those guys give Arizona more up-front pass rush than most 3-4 teams. At linebacker, the Cards will miss Dansby’s athleticism, but they hope free-agent addition Joey Porter and rookie Daryl Washington help to create pressure. FS Adrian Wilson is a ballhawk in the back end, and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie has emerged as a quality corner. The Cards still have some top-level talent in Dockett, Wilson, and Fitzgerald, but the question is whether the QB questions will scuttle the season. Arizona won’t need much from Anderson to contend in the punchless NFC West, but if Anderson starts turning the ball over, things could turn ugly and reverse the foundation Whisenhunt has built.

Pick ‘em – Week 0

After a horrible year of picks last year, we’re back for more this year. You can’t stop us. Just don’t rely on us to know what’s going on.

Here are the picks for the opening week of college football games.

Southern Miss +14 at South Carolina
Pitt +3 at Utah
USC -22 at Hawaii
Missouri -11.5 vs. Illinois (St. Louis)
Notre Dame -11 vs. Purdue
Louisville +3 vs. Kentucky
UConn +3 at Michigan
UCLA – 1.5 at Kansas State
Washington +3 at BYU
Northwestern -5.5 at Vanderbilt
Oregon State +13.5 vs. TCU (Dallas)
LSU E vs. North Carolina (Atlanta)
Cincinnati +3 at Fresno State
Virginia Tech +2 vs. Boise State (Washington D.C.)

FR: Preseason additions

What additions teams made late in the preseason will make the most difference come the regular season? We try to figure that out in this post, which comments on additions made from the second preseason game until the season opener. For thoughts on earlier additions, check out this training-camp additions post and work your way back.

Giants (add OG Shawn Andrews) – Andrews, who made two Pro Bowls and thrived at guard for the Eagles, lost his job there after playing only two games over the past two years. Last season, the problem was a back injury, while a battle with depression cost Andrews the entire 2008 season. The Eagles said he failed a physical when they cut him in March. If he gets in shape and stays healthy, Andrews can still be an above-average guard who can help address injury issues the Giants are facing with Chris Snee and Rich Seubert. And you’d assume that Andrews would be motivated to play the Eagles twice this season. Maybe this is a gamble that doesn’t pay off, but it makes sense for the Giants to take a low-cost shot on a player who thrived before.

Vikings (add WR Javon Walker) – Walker, who last played in the NFL in 2008, comes to Minnestota to help a receiving corps that faces health issues for Sidney Rice and Percy Harvin (along with Jaymar Johnson). Walker was highly productive in Green Bay and Denver, but he was a high-dollar bust in Oakland, and he hasn’t been healthy in years. Plus, he and Brett Favre are far from chums, after Favre threw Walker under the bus during  a holdout when both were Packers. If Walker still has something left, he could be a find for the Vikings, but adding him at this point – especially after he had such public disputes with Favre – seems like a strange (if not a desperate) move.

Texans (add RB Derrick Ward) - Ward, who was cut by Tampa Bay after being a high-dollar free-agent bust in 2009, landed in Houston as a complimentary back to Arian Foster. Ward is a bigger back who brings a little of the thump that Houston was depending on rookie Ben Tate to provide before Tate’s training-camp injury. It’s a nice landing spot for Ward, who turns 30 this season but is just two years removed from a thousand-yard season.

Saints (kept DT Kendrick Clancy; add RB DeShawn Wynn) – Clancy, who played just two games for New Orleans last year after starting 14 for the team the year before, returns as a run-stuffing specialist. He is still good enough to clog the middle for 10-15 plays a game. And after adding Ladell Betts looking for a No. 3 running back, the Saints are also giving ex-Packer Wynn a shot. Wynn had a few moments in Green Bay, but he’s not a dynamic threat. Wynn ended up beating out Betts for a roster spot.

Chargers (claim CB Fred Bennett) – Bennett, a former fourth-round pick, emerged as a prospect in Houston early on, but his performance slipped over the last couple of years. Still, he’s worth a waiver claim for the Chargers, who gave up Antonio Cromartie in the offseason, which limited their CB depth.

Bills (add TE J.P. Foschi) – Foschi came to Buffalo in late August to address a major tight end depth problem, and with Shawn Nelson facing suspension and Derek Schoumann hurt, Foschi could make the opening-day roster. Foschi is a decent tight end who won’t embarrass the Bills, but he’s not going to change the team’s fate.

Lions (add LB Rocky Boiman) – With standout sophomore DeAndre Levy fighting a groin injury, the Lions added Boiman for insurance at middle linebacker. The eight-year vet has proven to be a solid if unspectacular factor in the middle for Pittsburgh, Indy, K.C., and Tennessee.

Seahawks (add WR Brandon Jones) - Jones was recently released by the 49ers, but he drew significant interest and landed in Seattle. He faces an uphill battle for playing time with the Seahawks, given the presence of veterans Deion Branch and T.J. Houshmandzadeh, youngsters Golden Tate and Deon Butler, and the shocking resurgence of former first-round bust Mike Williams. But perhaps the Seahawks want to pick Jones’ brain leading up to their regular-season opener against the 49ers.

Jets (add OLB Ricky Foley) – After Calvin Pace suffered a foot injury that will sideline him into the regular season, the Jets claimed Foley, a former sack-producer in the CFL who couldn’t win a job in Seattle. The Jets’ 3-4 defense should be a better fit for Foley than Pete Carroll’s 4-3, and if nothing else Foley adds depth at a cheap price while Pace is out.

Bears (add QB Todd Collins) – Collins, who started almost a full season for the Bills way back in 1997, has been a solid backup in Kansas City and Washington over the last decade. Now he goes to Chicago, where he has knocked off Matt Gutierrez and should soon surpass rookie Dan LeFevour to become Jay Cutler’s backup. It’s a worthwhile investment for a Bears team that needs good QB play to keep its offense potent.

Redskins (add FB Carey Davis and S Tyrone Carter) – Davis, who spent the last four seasons with the Steelers, landed with the Redskins to help fill-in for injured FB Mike Sellers. Carter is another former Steeler who will hit despite his smaller size.

FR: Preseason cuts

As the turk looms over NFL teams, the list of players released balloons in late August and early September. In this post, we’ll comment on some of the most significant cuts between the closing of training camps and September 1. For analysis of previous cuts, visit the training-camp cuts post and work your way back.

Bengals (cut WR Antonio Bryant and LB Rashad Jeanty) - Bryant became the Bengals’ second straight free-agent bust at wide receiver, joining Laveranues Coles. (Andrew Brandt broke down the numbers well.) Bryant got a four-year, $28 million deal just four months ago, but the knee problems that plagued him last year never went away long enough for him to emerge, and when Cincinnati added Terrell Owens last month, Bryant was no longer needed despite his big contract. The miscalcuation on Bryant’s health will cost the Bengals at least $8 million guaranteed (and maybe more, depending on how an upcoming grievance is resolved), but the Bengals still have enough passing weapons with T.O., Chad Ochocinco, and rookies Jordan Shipley and Jermaine Gresham that Bryant won’t be missed on the field. Jeanty suffered a broken leg last year, and his inability to bounce back made him expendable. He was a quality backup linebacker and special-teams coverage player.

Jets (cut WR Laveranues Coles) – Coles’ third go-round with the Jets was grounded preemptively, and Coles claims he is done now. That may not be true, because the Jets may call Coles back after the first game so that they’re not on the hook for guaranteeing Coles’ base salary for the season. Coles’ skills really showed some decline last season in Cincinnati, and the Jets mainly wanted him as a bridge until Santonio Holmes’ four-game suspension ends. Now the Jets will rely on Braylon Edwards and Jerricho Cotchery and hope role players like David Clowney and Brad Smith emerge during the first month of the season.

Buccaneers (cut WR Derrick Ward) – Ward piled up 1,000 rushing yards two years ago with the Giants, and as a result he got a hefty deal to come to Tampa Bay as a free agent. But Ward managed just 409 rushing yards and a 3.6 yards per carry average last year, and this preseason he fell behind not only Cadillac Williams but also rookie Kareem Huggins. So the Bucs cut the cord on Ward right around his 30th birthday. Someone will take a shot on Ward, given how recently he had success, but he’s little more than a stopgap at this point.

Redskins (cut LB Chris Draft) – Draft has been a yeoman for years now, making the rounds as a linebacker good enough to back up any position but not good enough to make an impact. Unless his skills have significantly eroded, he’ll probably find another home in that role.

Broncos (cut LB Akin Ayodele) – Ayodele is a 3-4 inside linebacker who succeeds more on brains than on athleticism at this point in his career. Teams moving to a 3-4 this season may take a look to see how Ayodele moves around at age 31.

Saints (cut LB Troy Evans) – Evans, an eight-year veteran, played all 16 games for New Orleans last year and started twice. He’s bene more of a special-teams contributor than a defensive stalwart, and his two starts last year were the first two of his career. The Saints expressed great pain in cutting their former special-teams captain, but the fact that they did it so early indicates the decision wasn’t that close.

Cowboys (cut S Pat Watkins) – Watkins has started just once game since his rookie season, but but he had a role as a nickelback and on special teams. But he’s the kind of player that teams now seek to replace with low-cost inexperienced players.

Fantasy Football: Draft board changes

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We posted our Fantasy Football draft board about 10 days ago, and today we went through the board and made final changes before our drafts happen. We thought we’d share these changes and our thinking behind them.

Moving Up
RB Ryan Mathews, Chargers  – Moves up from top of Tier 2 to bottom of Tier 1. We now prefer him to Rashard Mendenhall or Cedric Benson.
RB Arian Foster, Texans – Moves from Tier 3B to bottom of Tier 2. Now a top-15 caliber fantasy back and a top-35 overall pick. Now on par with Ahmad Bradshaw on our draft board.
WR Malcom Floyd, Chargers – Moves up 13 spots overall because of Vincent Jackson’s holdout. Now on par with Dwayne Bowe on our draft board.

Moving Down
WR Sidney Rice, Vikings – Moves down because of injury that could cost him half the season. Moves to the bottom of Tier 3 as a draft-and-hold prospect.
WR Vincent Jackson, Chargers – Moves down because holdout remains in effect. Moves to the bottom of Tier 3 as a draft-and-hold prospect.
WR Brett Favre, Vikings – Moves down because of Sidney Rice’s injury. Moves from Tier 2 to Tier 3 but remains the No. 8 overall QB.

Moving On
WR Legedu Naanee, Chargers – Gains value because Vincent Jackson’s holdout isn’t resolved. Becomes a late-round flier on Tier 5.
WR Greg Camarillo, Vikings – Gains value because of trade to Vikings and Sidney Rice’s injury. Becomes a late-round flier on Tier 5.
WRs Laurent Robinson and Danny Amendola, Rams – Gain value because of Donnie Avery’s injury. Both become late-round fliers on Tier 5. We prefer Amendola slightly.
RB Kareem Hughes, Buccaneers – Gains value because he beat out Derrick Ward for backup RB job behind Cadillac Williams. Becomes a late-round flier on Tier 5.
WR Jordan Shipley, Bengals – Gains value because of Antonio Bryant’s release. Becomes a late-round flier on Tier 5.

Moving Off
WR Donnie Avery, Rams (injury)
QB Matt Leinart, Cardinals (lost job)
RB Derrick Ward, Buccaneers (cut)

Do not draft
The following players are on injured reserve and out for the year. We added them to our do not draft list.
QB: Jim Sorgi, Giants
RB: P.J. Hill, Saints
WR: Marcus Easley, Bills; Jaymar Johnson, Vikings; Kerry Meier, Falcons, Donnie Avery, Rams; Sinorice Moss, Giants; Wallace Wright, Panthers; Malcolm Kelly, Redskins
TE: Jake Nordin, Lions; Joey Haynos, Lions

The ABCs of receiver roulette – Avery, Bryant, Coles

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Three major news items emerged at the wide receiver position this weekend, and we’re going to break them down like ABC. First comes Donnie Avery’s season-ending injury in St. Louis. Next comes the Bengals’ release of WR Antonio Bryant and then the Jets’ release of WR Laveranues Coles. We’ll analyze the ABCs below, both on the field and from a fantasy football perspective.

A – In St. Louis, Avery was set to become the Rams’ No. 1 receiver once again, but he tore the ACL in his right knee in the Rams’ third preseason game, which will land him on injured reserve and end his season. The injury is a big blow to the Rams, because Avery (who had 100 catches over the past two years) is the only proven receiver on the Rams’ roster. The injury not only stymies a St. Louis attack that’s bereft of playmakers; it also makes it harder for rookie QB Sam Bradford to succeed because he has so few quality targets to look for.
Fantasy impact: With Avery out, Laurent Robinson is probably the Rams’ best receiving option, with Danny Amendola close behind. Feel free to take a flier on either Ram in the final round of larger leagues, but both are long shots to make big impacts.

B – In Cincinnati, Bryant became the Bengals’ second straight free-agent bust at wide receiver, joining Laveranues Coles. (Andrew Brandt broke down the numbers well.) Bryant got a four-year, $28 million deal just four months ago, but the knee problems that plagued him last year never went away long enough for him to emerge, and when Cincinnati added Terrell Owens last month, Bryant was no longer needed despite his big contract. The miscalcuation on Bryant’s health will cost the Bengals at least $8 million guaranteed (and maybe more, depending on how an upcoming grievance is resolved), but the Bengals still have enough passing weapons with T.O., Chad Ochocinco, and rookies Jordan Shipley and Jermaine Gresham that Bryant won’t be missed on the field.
Fantasy impact: Bryant’s departure doesn’t raise the stock of Ochocinco or T.O., but it does mitigate some of the risk of both players by defining their roles more clearly. Ochocinco is a No. 2 receiver, while Owens is a No. 4. Shipley now becomes draftable as a sleeper, because his spot in the slot could help him carve out a role and some numbers. Gresham also becomes draftable in larger leagues as a top 20 tight end. Quarterback Carson Palmer’s status doesn’t change.

C – In New York, Coles’ third go-round with the Jets was grounded preemptively, and Coles claims he is done now. That may not be true, because the Jets may call Coles back after the first game so that they’re not on the hook for guaranteeing Coles’ base salary for the season. Coles’ skills really showed some decline last season in Cincinnati, and the Jets mainly wanted him as a bridge until Santonio Holmes’ four-game suspension ends. Now the Jets will rely on Braylon Edwards and Jerricho Cotchery and hope role players like David Clowney and Brad Smith emerge during the first month of the season.
Fantasy impact: Coles had no fantasy value before and still doesn’t. His absence doesn’t affect Braylon Edwards’ value but does make Jerricho Cotchery a solid flex play for the first four weeks of the season until Holmes returns to the field.

Quarterback controversy in the cards in Arizona

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Quarterback controversies seem to be rare these days, but a genuine one is brewing in Arizona. On Saturday night, the Cardinals will switch from starting Matt Leinart to give Derek Anderson a shot against the Bears in Soldier Field. Let’s analyze this competition on the field and consider its fantasy football implications.

Leinart, once the golden boy of Troy as a Heisman Trophy winner at USC, was the 10th overall pick back in 2006, and as a rookie he started 11 games and showed promise. But Kurt Warner took over at the end of that season and then seized the starting job the next year, leading the Cardinals to levels of success they haven’t ever seen. Now that Warner is retired, most assumed that Leinart would finally get the chance to start for ‘Zona. Leinart’s hallmark isn’t a big arm but accuracy, which would seem to be at a premium in a Cardinals offense that has such talented wide receivers in Larry Fitzgerald, Steve Breaston, and Early Doucet. But Leinart hasn’t shown that accuracy in the preseason, and he at this point appears almost gunshy. Now, it may not be in the cards for Leinart (right) to make it back into the starting lineup.

So the Cardinals now are taking a look at Derek Anderson, who joined the team in the offseason for backup money but with the chance to at least nominally compete for the starting job. Anderson has been a pro since 2005, and in his one season as a full-time starter he threw for 29 touchdowns and 3,787 yards for a Cleveland offense that had solid targets in Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow. Anderson has a big arm and can fling the ball downfield, but he’s inconsistent and prone to mistakes. Last year, he played half the season and threw just three touchdowns with 10 interceptions. He doesn’t have the consistency that Leinart should have, but given the fact that head coach Ken Whisenhunt wants to move the Cardinals to a run-oriented offense, Anderson can provide the balance of more big plays that will keep defenses from focusing completely on Beanie Wells and Tim Hightower. If Anderson can avoid turnovers, he has a real shot to seize the job from Leinart much as Warner did back in 2006-07.

Fantasy football owners should actually hope that happens. Anderson’s much more likely to keep Larry Fitzgerald’s fantasy value up around the top 5 at receiver because of deep passes. Likewise, Breaston and Doucet would have marginally more value with Anderson. Of course, that uptick in value comes with more risk, given Anderson’s propensity toward inconsistency and interceptions, but fantasy owners crave the upside that Anderson can provide.

Sidney Rice: No longer hip

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Amazingly, Brett Favre isn’t the biggest newsmaker in Minnesota right now. Earlier this week, WR Sidney Rice announced he had hip surgery, which will cost him about half the season and could still land him on injured reserve. In response to Rice’s injury, the Vikings signed Javon Walker and traded for Greg Camarillo. Below are some thoughts on Rice’s injury and the acquisition of Camarillo (we already wrote about Walker here), both from an on-field perspective and a fantasy football perspective.

Rice had a breakout season last year with Favre throwing the ball, catching 83 passes for 1,312 yards and eight touchdowns. While Favre’s arrival certainly aided Rice’s development into a Pro Bowl selection, it was also the common third-year emergence for receivers like Rice who were high draft picks. (Rice was a second-rounder.) He’s big and has outstanding ball skills, which makes him a downfield threat despite marginal NFL speed. Rice’s size coupled with Percy Harvin’s breakaway ability would have given the Vikings a top-level receiving duo that’s also young, but now that Rice will miss much of the season, the Vikings don’t have a No. 1 receiver. Maybe Harvin can emerge, or maybe former high-dollar free-agent signing Bernard Berrian can recapture his promise. But neither Harvin nor Berrian has the size to be such a dependable threat as Rice.

After injuries benched Rice for half the season and put Harvin’s season in question, the Vikings  dealt for reinforcements. Camarillo, a former undrafted free agent, established himself as a solid receiving threat with 110 catches over his last two full seasons. While he has only averaged about 11 yards per catch during those two seasons, he’s a dependable possession receiver who provides depth for the Vikings and who may eventually fit into the slot if Rice and Harvin return. If nothing else, Camarillo’s acquisition ensures that the Vikings will still be able to run multi-WR sets effectively. In exchange for Camarillo, the Vikings sent Sapp to Miami. Sapp started a career-high seven games last year, and he’s proven to be a decent nickelback and special-teams player. Since Camarillo was likely losing prominence in Miami after the addition of Brandon Marshall and the development of Patrick Turner and Brian Hartline, it makes sense for Miami to get a solid role player in return for him.

For fantasy football purposes, Rice’s injury knocks him out of being a top-15 fantasy wideout and makes him a speculative pick who’s worth a roster spot in leagues with deep benches. He’s probably now worth a pick around No. 40 among wideouts. Harvin is a top-20 talent whose migraine problems make him a high risk/high reward pick, and Rice’s injury raises Harvin’s upside a bit. Berrian’s stock shoots up so that he is now draftable as a starter, while Camarillo is worth adding to draft boards among the top 200 overall. Most of all, these injury problems in his receiving corps limit Favre’s upside and knock him out of Tier 2 and onto the same level as risk/reward picks Jay Cutler, Eli Manning, and Kevin Kolb. At this point, expecting Favre to even approach his 33-TD season of a year ago is foolhardy.

Crazy Kicker of Preseason Week 2

The Crazy Kicker of the second week of the preseason didn’t choose this mantle – it was forced upon him. The Chicago Bears’ regular long-snapper, Patrick Mannelly, was sidelined by a neck stinger for the preseason game against the Oakland Raiders. So tight end Desmond Clark (Go Deacs!) had to fill in. The results weren’t good. In the second quarter, lined up for a 38-yard field goal attempt, Clark bounced a snap to holder Brad Maynard. Kicker Robbie Gould picked up the ball and tried to heave a deep pass, but he was called for intentional grounding.

Give Gould credit for trying to make something out of nothing. Also, give him the honor of Crazy Kicker of the Week.

2010 Crazy Kickers of the Week
CFL: WR Dave Stala, Tiger-Cats
Preseason Week 1: P Brett Kern, Titans
Preseason Week 2: PK Robbie Gould, Bears